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Topic: What's Going on in China? (Read 20524 times)

  • jax
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  • Global Moderator
What's Going on in China?
What is happening in China, the mainland, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macao, and with Chinese overseas?

  • jax
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  • Global Moderator
Re: What's Going on in China?
Reply #275
Guomindang and the Communist Party of China both agree that Taiwan is part of China (if not on who should rule China), and legally the case is pretty clear. Taiwan/Mainland China is quite analogous to West/East Germany (formerly), North/South Vietnam (formerly) and North/South Korea (currently). These are all cases of one county, as is also the case with e.g. Somaliland in Somalia, where the Somali government doesn't extend into the territory. The Kurdish areas in Iraq is another such case of de facto, but not de jure, independence.

It could seem that the long separation (67 years and counting, 68 for Korea) would inevitably lead to a divorce, but it is not inevitable. A political process is necessary. Taiwan cannot unilaterally secede from China. Kosovo did from Serbia, but after a war, and even so the legality of that was less than perfect.

  • ersi
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Re: What's Going on in China?
Reply #276
Guomindang and the Communist Party of China both agree that Taiwan is part of China (if not on who should rule China), and legally the case is pretty clear. Taiwan/Mainland China is quite analogous to West/East Germany (formerly), North/South Vietnam (formerly) and North/South Korea (currently).
Diplomatically (which is the pragmatic, i.e. workable, argument in international law) Taiwan's case is pretty hopeless. East and West Germany were both dipomatically viable countries and so are North and South Korea. Communist Vietnam kicked U.S. butt and got international recognition in response. Taiwan, thanks to Henry Kissinger, has no viable diplomatic relations, only economic ones. Both Chinas do One China policy from their own perspective, but mainland China has decidedly had the upper hand since Henry Kissinger.

  • rjhowie
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Re: What's Going on in China?
Reply #277
Well Oakdale Free China also has two islands right next to the mainland (Quemopy and Matsu) so maybe a mile or so swim might be possible! :up:
"Quit you like men:be strong"

  • jax
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  • Global Moderator
Re: What's Going on in China?
Reply #278
Diplomatically (which is the pragmatic, i.e. workable, argument in international law) Taiwan's case is pretty hopeless. East and West Germany were both dipomatically viable countries and so are North and South Korea. Communist Vietnam kicked U.S. butt and got international recognition in response. Taiwan, thanks to Henry Kissinger, has no viable diplomatic relations, only economic ones. Both Chinas do One China policy from their own perspective, but mainland China has decidedly had the upper hand since Henry Kissinger.

None of these were/will be unions of equals. North Vietnam took over South Vietnam when the Americans left. West Germany simply took over East Germany to form Germany, which is the likely outcome of South Korea taking over North Korea (both South Korea and China are concerned about refugees in a collapsing North Korea), while Mainland China would be likely to repeat one country two systems if things got their way, which makes Hong Kong and Macau important showcases for Beijing.

  • ersi
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Re: What's Going on in China?
Reply #279
None of these were/will be unions of equals. North Vietnam took over South Vietnam when the Americans left. West Germany simply took over East Germany to form Germany, which is the likely outcome of South Korea taking over North Korea (both South Korea and China are concerned about refugees in a collapsing North Korea), while Mainland China would be likely to repeat one country two systems if things got their way, which makes Hong Kong and Macau important showcases for Beijing.
I disagree. South Vietnam surrendered grudgingly to superior firepower. East Germany willingly self-destructed as the whole Commie block was imploding and at the same time it was perceived that Westerners would not persecute the Eastern comrades, the capital would remain in Berlin, etc. Hong Kong and Macau had no say in their own fates as they were colonies, not countries.

The relationship of Taiwan and China resembles most that of the Koreas - frozen conflict, no reconciliation in sight. Taiwan has no reason to willingly surrender without a (military) fight because they are a so-called free country with direct continuity with the erstwhile republic that used to rule the mainland and used to be internationally recognized. Taiwan would likely implode as soon as U.S. (and Japan) withdraw their military presence, but nobody wants the mainland Chinese regime to spread in the region, so the containment is to remain in place.

Elements of cold war continue in Far East. Except that U.S. has Trump now who can do whatever random and senseless either purely to advance his personal business or to prop his popularity at home.


  • krake
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Re: What's Going on in China?
Reply #280
which is the likely outcome of South Korea taking over North Korea (both South Korea and China are concerned about refugees in a collapsing North Korea),
What China is also concerned about is the military presence of the USA in South Korea. Wonder which of the concern is bigger...
As for the USA, in case of an unified Korea it would have to look for another pretext for its military presence there.
Whatever that pretext would be, I don't think that the Chinese will buy it. The further expansion of NATO and US military bases after Germany's reunification didn't passed unnoticed.
To sum it up, my forecast for an unified Korea with US military presence in the country is less optimistic than yours.

  • krake
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Re: What's Going on in China?
Reply #281
Taiwan would likely implode as soon as U.S. (and Japan) withdraw their military presence, but nobody wants the mainland Chinese regime to spread in the region, so the containment is to remain in place.
It's not the U.S. (and Japan) military presence which keeps Taiwan afloat but economic support. ;)
The question is if that support is affordable forever. In the meantime Taiwan's economic dependency on China grows.

  • rjhowie
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Re: What's Going on in China?
Reply #282
In the earlier stage the Republic of China had already started getting somewhere whilst the mainland was still locked in that Red Book mentality nonsense so that idea of long control is not completely accurate. At the same modern time of course the 2 Chinas for all the rhetoric are trading with each other!
"Quit you like men:be strong"