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Topic: What's going on in the Caliphate, and the affected neighbourhood? (Read 26764 times)

  • jax
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What's going on in the Caliphate, and the affected neighbourhood?
I am referring to the self-proclaimed Caliphate in the war zones of Iraq and Syria, under a variety of names and English translations, like ISIL, ISIS, IS and Da'esh, with a territory from actual to megalomaniac; their ambitions and actions, their people and ideology, and how the people and countries are affected by them, and react to them.


  • krake
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Re: What's going on in the Caliphate, and the affected neighbourhood?
Reply #275
The Sultan from Ankara is gaining popularity. Now even a song was dedicated to the brave man. :)


  • rjhowie
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Re: What's going on in the Caliphate, and the affected neighbourhood?
Reply #276
Well certainly is a clown and he is increasingly acting like a dictator so maybe a laugh is a passing good thing!
"Quit you like men:be strong"

  • Frenzie
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Re: What's going on in the Caliphate, and the affected neighbourhood?
Reply #277
I don't know if this belongs here per se, but I was slightly surprised to learn that the Middle East forms a kind of obese blob on the map.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/tomorrow/overweight-and-obesity-problems-in-global-comparison-a-1090337.html

  • krake
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Re: What's going on in the Caliphate, and the affected neighbourhood?
Reply #278
Is sultan Erdogans' Turkey ripe for EU membership?

video

  • rjhowie
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Re: What's going on in the Caliphate, and the affected neighbourhood?
Reply #279
It most certainly is not!

It is a part democracy and did you see the punch up by their MP's the other day on television? The situation with the Kurds has been a long term  bad one and remember the Turks wiped out more than a million of them in the early 1900's. Even today apart from the militants the way Kurds get battered in protests and recently innocents killed by the army, electricity and water supplies cut off the country is a damn disgrace.  On a lesser note we have enough damn Muslims in Europe.  Oh and why does the hell-hole have such a massive military??
"Quit you like men:be strong"

  • jax
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  • Global Moderator
Re: What's going on in the Caliphate, and the affected neighbourhood?
Reply #280
You've probably seen that Harmagedon is postponed.

What Isis lost in Dabiq

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This propaganda shift has already been seen manifested in the release of a new shorter propaganda magazine Rumiyah, seemingly intended to replace Dabiq. The naming of Rumiyah ("Rome" in Arabic) appears to reveal something about the group's shifting priorities. Not only does it emphasise the continuity between jihadi struggles today with ancient battles from Islamic history, but also an increased focus on directly attacking western countries, rather than encouraging recruits to migrate to Iraq and Syria.
Will ISIS scatter after the battle for Mosul?

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The Battle for Mosul will affect ISIS fighters in key ways. First, after an aggressive and deadly defense of Mosul, ISIS supporters are likely to melt away into the background and await to see what happens next with Iraqi stabilization operations.

ISIS is likely to launch an assertive suicide campaign in Baghdad and other Iraqi cities and perhaps attacking infrastructure. Shiites will be targeted out of sectarian hatred. In Mosul's future, it is likely that ISIS will strike constabulary forces and police training sites once the city is brought fully under control.


Second, ISIS fighters are going to migrate. ISIS fighters are now heading to Syria and eventually are going to protect Raqqa. An influx of fighters from Mosul in to Hasaka is a signal of the ISIS flow westward. This migration into Syria is going to swell Raqqa with fighters that will make that urban battle long and deadly.


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After an aggressive and deadly defense of Mosul, ISIS supporters are likely to melt away into the background and await to see what happens next with Iraqi stabilization operations
ISIS's ability to provide for these fighters may be in question given the degrading capabilities of ISIS's social services. ISIS fighters are going to end up returning to their homelands with the blessing of the so-called Caliphate leadership.

Third, ISIS authorities are distributing fighters to specific locations to boost ISIS breeding grounds. According to a GCC official, ISIS's enabler networks are now focusing on building its nimble organization by tapping into trans-regional and local criminal networks across a number of continents in order to spread out across a number of continents with Levantine-based, hardened fighters. ISIS, like seeds, is to scatter from Africa to East Asia to boost embryonic "states" even if only a cyber-presence.




  • ersi
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Re: What's going on in the Caliphate, and the affected neighbourhood?
Reply #281
What were W's priorities? To defeat Saddam in the particular way he did it meant creating ISIS.
The Obama administration's failure to negotiate a status of forces agreement and our subsequent withdrawal led to ISIS...
This doesn't answer the question about W's priorities. And the Obama administration's failure just might have something to do with the particular way the new regime was built up in Iraq, incapable of deciding anything, and when occasionally able to decide, unable to follow through with the decision.

"Repubs adore social experiments"! ersi, you seem to know next to nothing about American politics.
You seem to know next to nothing how loudly ridiculous American politics looks from here. I visit your country from time to time for a closer perspective, but it gets even more ridiculous that way.

But I'll remind you of something: Saddam attempted to assassinate GHW Bush during the Clinton administration... More than enough reason for taking out the guy, eh?
No. Not more than enough. Depends on what else he's done.

Anyway, if you seriously want to take out a guy, you don't devastate a whole country in the process. Unless you are criminally insane. Normally you'd send a secret agent prostitute to take him out. Or two guys dressed up as room service or something. But yeah, American politics insist on being ridiculous. You had a reasonable chance to take out the guy right here:


 
The Neocon nation-building stuff was botched, if it ever had a chance. But it was always a liberal (Democrat) notion.
And even though it's neocon nation-building that is botched, it's the Obama administration's fault that created ISIS, right?

If you want to know about our history of demagogues, you can go as far back as Andrew Jackson...
Is there really something left to know about American politics?

  • rjhowie
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Re: What's going on in the Caliphate, and the affected neighbourhood?
Reply #282
Re closing query.

Nope.
"Quit you like men:be strong"

  • OakdaleFTL
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Re: What's going on in the Caliphate, and the affected neighbourhood?
Reply #283
Is there really something left to know about American politics?
Of course not! That's the advantage of thinking one knows everything already: Reality doesn't impinge on your prejudices...
进行 ...
"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
No one listens to me as much as I do and even I have my limits...
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman

  • jax
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  • Global Moderator
Re: What's going on in the Caliphate, and the affected neighbourhood?
Reply #284
Mossul is under attack.
Thanks to Syria and Russia the Islamic State is going to be defeated.
Americans are out. Irrelevant Americans. The times they are a changing.... 
What were W's priorities? To defeat Saddam in the particular way he did it meant creating ISIS.
The Obama administration's failure to negotiate a status of forces agreement and our subsequent withdrawal led to ISIS...
"Repubs adore social experiments"! ersi, you seem to know next to nothing about American politics.

But I'll remind you of something: Saddam attempted to assassinate GHW Bush during the Clinton administration... More than enough reason for taking out the guy, eh? The Neocon nation-building stuff was botched, if it ever had a chance. But it was always a liberal (Democrat) notion.

That Mosul is under attack is pretty much due to the Americans and the Iranians and the Kurds. The Russians are there primarily for Assad and the Iranians. The Turks, Saudis and Qatari have run their own game. 

We know pretty well what caused ISIL's rise from its near-destruction and we have discussed it over the years, in part here. There is no need to massage history. We can put it down to massive US failures during the reign of Bush the Younger, followed by the success that nearly broke ISIL, followed by different priorities during the reign of Obama the First. ISIL never had priority among the Americans, nor indeed for anyone else not unfortunate enough to actually live in the coming Caliphate. ISIL could be considered the pied piper, the Donald Trump of terror organisations. After they had wrecked their havoc the winning players could collect the pot. 



  • OakdaleFTL
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Re: What's going on in the Caliphate, and the affected neighbourhood?
Reply #285
We can put it down to massive US failures during the reign of Bush the Younger
Beginning with appointing the most incompetent pro-counsel in history, Paul Bremer...
Of course, Saddam's emptying his jails prior to occupation played into this incompetency: Our disbanding the Iraqi army was a huge blunder.
进行 ...
"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
No one listens to me as much as I do and even I have my limits...
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman

  • jax
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  • Global Moderator
Re: What's going on in the Caliphate, and the affected neighbourhood?
Reply #286
Yes. It was considered a bad decision at the time, though I don't anyone realised how bad bad it would turn out to be.

I was upset by the arrogance, hubris, and stupidity during the takeover, something not only Iraq and the region but the world is suffering from more than a decade later, and probably for a long time to come. But until this point Iraq was probably winnable. Bremer may not exactly have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, more like disaster from the jaws of failure.

They also underestimated how few had a vested interest in the Americans succeeding (there was no European buy-in, and the Arab allies had an interest in topping Saddam, not so much in an American puppet regime) and how many had a vested interest in the Americans failing (next-in-line Iran obviously, but basically most everyone else probably including said Arab allies). American failures ironically made the Europeans more invested, as the blowback would affect Europe, and has affected Europe.

  • Belfrager
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Re: What's going on in the Caliphate, and the affected neighbourhood?
Reply #287
ISIL could be considered the pied piper, the Donald Trump of terror organisations. After they had wrecked their havoc the winning players could collect the pot.
I know no terrorist organizations that were/are/will be not financed by someone or even many ones, so ISIS doesn't surprises in that aspect. But we must recognize that is not common a terrorist group to almost instantly conquer and occupy such a big territory coming out of nothing.

To me, what matters is not the Russian, American, Iranian, or Turkey moves but the absence of players defending European interests. All those weapons should be firing with European accent.

A matter of attitude.

  • jax
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  • Global Moderator
Re: What's going on in the Caliphate, and the affected neighbourhood?
Reply #288
They spotted a market opportunity and took it. It was hardly instant not without hardship.

It begun as a dreadful friendship between the Bremer-idled hands of secular former Ba'athists and al-Zarqawi's murder band. The seed capital has been fingered to Saudi and Qatari hands, but it quickly became profitable. 

There are is an unlimited stream of fodder wanting to die for a cause, whether as a statement against schools and post offices or people belonging to certain professions or groups. ISIL's selling point was to add rape, slavery and murder. Who could resist? Even so, with this phase over, ISIL will need to rebrand themselves, and extend the brand and franchises. 

There are enough fingers on the trigger to add even more, and besides many European arms dealers are making a killing. 


Are Turkey and Iraq Headed for War in Mosul?

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The operation to liberate Mosul has launched, and U.S., Iraqi government, Kurdish Peshmerga, Yezidi, Christian and local Sunni forces are on the move. Their effort faces many challenges. One of the most important is the dispute between Ankara and Baghdad over the presence of Turkish troops at Bashiqa northeast of Mosul. Unless addressed quickly, there is danger of a war within a war that could damage the prospects for retaking and stabilizing Mosul.
The answer to this would certainly be Betteridge's law of headlines
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Betteridge's law of headlines is one name for an adage that states: "Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no."



  • Belfrager
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Re: What's going on in the Caliphate, and the affected neighbourhood?
Reply #289
There are enough fingers on the trigger to add even more, and besides many European arms dealers are making a killing.
Maybe European arm dealers are doing good business (if not them others would do it anyway) but as you said very correctly:
as the blowback would affect Europe, and has affected Europe.
We need to solve definitively the European leadership problem once for all in order to stop the continuous attack on European assets by the New Barbarian forces. European's influence zones should not fall out of our hands, this is not the way to survive.
A matter of attitude.

  • rjhowie
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Re: What's going on in the Caliphate, and the affected neighbourhood?
Reply #290
Turkey would be better keeping it's neb out of Iraq.
"Quit you like men:be strong"

  • jax
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  • Global Moderator
Re: What's going on in the Caliphate, and the affected neighbourhood?
Reply #291
Hitler couldn't do it; The British Empire failed.
ISIS is doomed.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/isis-revolutionary-state

Seeing patterns can be good, but sometimes the overarching arch arches over so much as to be next to useless.

Grasping power is not the same as holding power (the Trumps should be aware of that by now). Check.
Consequently, like Saturn, the Revolution devours its children. Check.
Consequently, revolutionary regimes tend not to be very nice, at least not initially. Check.
Contrary to fears, revolutions aren't very contagious in practice. Check
Revolutionaries may use and reuse public enemies, doesn't make them friends. Check.
Conversely, particularly with ISIS, their enemies are also themselves enemies. Check.

  • rjhowie
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Re: What's going on in the Caliphate, and the affected neighbourhood?
Reply #292
Well the idea that autocracies or near ones are history is not something to waver on. We get them in Africa, Middle east, Far east. The caliphate mob were in a sense unusual trying to create something basically in more than one country next each other  but there we are.  However those religious malfunctioning fanatic nut-cases are spreading people all around the world and many of our countries suffering due to them. And the other hard truth so often ignored is that they do have supporters. In my country the number of them being arrested on suspicious grounds is notable and the same can be said across Europe for example. Those that end up in our jails for example get busy trying to recruit others. That point triggers something in my mind of a suggestion that Islam terrorist nutjobs should be kept separate  from the other general prison population and that IS a great idea.
"Quit you like men:be strong"

  • Belfrager
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Re: What's going on in the Caliphate, and the affected neighbourhood?
Reply #293
It seems there's no more Caliphate anymore..
A matter of attitude.

  • rjhowie
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Re: What's going on in the Caliphate, and the affected neighbourhood?
Reply #294
No there isn't but the nutters are still about.
"Quit you like men:be strong"

  • jax
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  • Global Moderator
Re: What's going on in the Caliphate, and the affected neighbourhood?
Reply #295

  • ersi
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Re: What's going on in the Caliphate, and the affected neighbourhood?
Reply #296
DiDn't anybody notice the referendum for Kurdish independence in Iraq? There's a Wikipedia page about it now.
An independence referendum for Iraqi Kurdistan was held on 25 September 2017, with preliminary results showing approximately 93 percent of votes cast in favour of independence.
Just like in the case of the Catalonian referendum, the central government rejects the region's aspirations to independence. In the Kurdish referendum, the ballot question was rather provocatively formulated, "Do you want the Kurdistan Region and the Kurdistani areas outside the region's administration to become an independent state?"

The "Kurdistani areas outside the region's administration" would include the city of Kirkuk, for example, which is the only sensible capital for the would-be Kurdish state. Without it, there will be no meaningful independent state. The city is currently under the control of Kurds, as the central government is basically incapacitated due to the ISIS problem. The Kurds are the only local force in Iraq who have battled ISIS effectively, part of the motivation being of course their aspiration to independence.

Besides the central government of Iraq, also Turkey would hate to see an independent Kurdistan. A large part of Turkey happens to be ethnolinguistic and historical Kurdistan, oppressed and suppressed by Turkish central government throughout the history of modern Turkey. An independent Kurdistan just next door would create a sort of Balkan problem. Well, not create. In my opinion, Balkan-like demographic processes have always been operating in the region and it's particularly clear right now. I might say Balkanization is a nice term to refer to everything post-Ottoman.

  • Frenzie
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  • Administrator
Re: What's going on in the Caliphate, and the affected neighbourhood?
Reply #297
DiDn't anybody notice the referendum for Kurdish independence in Iraq? There's a Wikipedia page about it now.
I heard about it on the French news (not saying it wasn't on the Dutch news; I've just been listening to the French news regularly for French-improvement purposes).

  • ersi
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Re: What's going on in the Caliphate, and the affected neighbourhood?
Reply #298
A few troublesome regions here.


  • Barulheira
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North and South
Reply #299
Northern Cyprus? WTF?!

Looking forward North Vatican and South Vatican... :left: :right: