Skip to main content

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.

Messages - jax

The US should do rather well as soon as it gets out of the Pax Romana mindset and into a global version of the Concert of Europe. The US mostly has opportunities and few threats. The EU needs to come to some understanding with our neighbours, Russia, the Middle East and the African Union, while the US got this beautiful wall from sea to shiny sea.
While the US founding fathers had a hangup on the Roman republic, the natural analogy isn't Rome, but London. Sometimes, during the worst excesses of Trump, Moscow springs to mind, but really it is London. The Fall of The British Empire was a rather protracted affair. Hopefully the US will do better.

The US part-obsession with China will pass. While Washington D.C. took the baton from London. Beijing will never get it. The EU will compete with India for the bronze medal, but actually we will have a bunch of frontrunners making more or less permanent alliances. 
Yes, it has been downhill since the Vereenigde Oostindische Compagnie went bankrupt.

Political power grows out of the barrel of a bank. 

Region%population%GDP (PPP)%GDP (nom)
Respective IMF/Wikipedia data. The nominal GDP was 2019 numbers pre-Brexit (21.4% otherwise), PPP is 2020 (post-Brexit).

In future share of the world's economy China is expected to level off (China is still growing faster than the rest of the world in GDP/capita, which is catching up, and then fall in population), India is expected to grow both population (at world speed) and economy (above world speed). The US and EU is expected to fall slightly behind in population, and significantly behind in economy (as the world catches up). 

If the EU can be considered a single unit, it will be a major player (#2 or #3, long term slated for #4). Long term, after the US has finished squabble with China about who is #1, the US will find it as #3, after India. Even further ahead, on existing trends, India will become #1, with China falling down to the US again, based on demographic trends.

No country, or likely integrated block of countries would beat the EU for #4, but there are several candidates for #5-#8. 
As 5 November 2024 is getting closer with every passing day, it's worth noting that the election year 2024 will have a syzygy of sorts. Not only will there be a US presidential election, but a Russian presidential election as well. There will be parliamentary elections in India, the EU, and the UK (and both Koreas and Taiwan).
A couple years of #flygskam and a pandemic has to be good for something. Now all that remains is not to end up at your destination station at four in the morning or afternoon, or leave at half past one.

 The only really good night train was the one between Amsterdam and Prague. Perfect timing.

Perfect it was't, but I liked the Scandinavian system for night trains between Oslo, Copenhagen and Stockholm. They all left for Gothenburg late evening (11-ish). Then, when in Gothenburg, they rearranged the train cars (ka-KA-klang-KANG!) to go to Oslo/Copenhagen/Stockholm, so depending on the car you were in you'd end up in either one of the destination cities.

DnD Central / Re: Tripe about Ukraine
Another fine performance by Joaquin Phoenix.
Vladimir Putin: The Real Lessons of the 75th Anniversary of World War II

If you want Putin's epos in extensio, this is a better link.

Nice retort, but probably with lesser distribution than the original, which got published everywhere, including abridged in the primary Norwegian newspaper.

Quote from: Putin
The Russian president offers a comprehensive assessment of the legacy of World War II, arguing that "Today, European politicians, and Polish leaders in particular, wish to sweep the Munich Betrayal under the carpet. The Munich Betrayal showed to the Soviet Union that the Western countries would deal with security issues without taking its interests into account."
Of course, in true Russian fashion, Putin notices how Russia's (actually USSR's) interests were betrayed by the big Western powers, while failing to notice and acknowledge how all greater powers, including USSR/Russia, trample on all smaller countries while playing their own supposedly big games. What follows is from Putin's "self-critical and unbiased" speech about the lessons of World War II.

That's not what he is playing at. While setting Russia up as a victim of Western powers is a default, here he is defusing the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. The division of Poland between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union is hard to defend with USSR as the victim. If set up with the Betrayal of Munich, the USSR victimhood can be restored.

As most would agree that the Munich Agreement was double-plus-ungood, we're already halfway there.

It is likely also intended to fuel Czech (and to a much lesser extent Slovak) resentments of the same agreement, and its aftermath, and Czechia is a disinformation battleground.

Poland is lost to Russia. If there is one thing the Polish government and the opposition would agree on, it would be Russia.
The producers of this series might well find the ground shifting under them.
DnD Central / Re: Women acting like me??
This is an extreme case of Betteridge's law.
"Intellectual" is a wonderfully fluid concept. As is, of course, "right-wing". The Republican party is more clan-based than the Democrats, who are more on a regular left-right scale, but if we leave the parties behind, the intellectuals/"intellectuals" are all over the place.

Tyler Cowen seems to be talking about loud and influential voices here, not necessarily (or even probably) deep thinkers.

I think he's wrong on China being a major topic because he is right that they are primarily motivated by a hatred of the left, and the US left has been, and still is, cool on China. And if the left dislike China then the right can't. Bipartisan collaboration will not be for them. Thus I think "Chyna" will be reminiscent of the right-wing reaction to Covid-19, split between two paths: Covid-19 doesn't exist, and Covid-19 is deep state.. And we certainly could get a pinball effect. If the right hates China, then maybe the left will begin to love it.

Where the left/right will stand on the Internet, depends on the utility of it. Whether it is a medium for information or disinformation will be further down on the list.
What the Post-Trump Right Will Look Like

Conservative intellectuals will end up focusing on China, the internet and the left.

The upcoming U.S. election raises a question also asked the last time around: What will the intellectual right look like a few years from now? Even if President Donald Trump wins re-election, the jockeying for 2024 will begin almost immediately -- and the smartest and best-informed thinkers on the right will have to decide which views and attitudes to emphasize.

Here are a few predictions about what might happen, as distinct from claims about what should happen.
The Subtle Modern Woman Suit Party? Should beat both the Raving Loony Green Giant Party and the Death, Dungeons and Taxes Party easily.
In the inanimate field there are no wages. And who is supposed to be liberated in the inanimate field?

The oppressed and immobile of course. That's why we try to put intelligence, autonomy, and agency in all inanimate (and animate) objects, and network protocols for them to organise.
I don't see leftist liberalism spreading. It maybe spread in the 60's and 70's or so. It definitely stopped spreading as Reagan and Thatcher were in power. Right now Trump and Putin are in power. Are they leftist liberals?

What is spreading is contrarianism and confrontationalism. Deep entrenchment of all camps and subcultures against each other has reached a tipping point.

It seems almost a constant that 4%-5% vote for Liberal parties, almost no matter where and when, in Europe anyway. It may go up, even double, or down to half, but give it a few years, and there it will be back to 4%-5% again.

Right illiberal parties have probably reached their zenith in most Western countries, while left parties, both liberal and illiberal, are on the rise. So is illiberalism, right, left or otherwise, across the world. There is good news, places that have turned more liberal, especially in Africa, but overshadowed by the more totalitarian bent elsewhere.


But now these words are being banned, so it appears that somebody else has been lobbying... I'd suspect lobbying makes terminology worse, not better, and it is entirely the wrong approach to do terminology by lobbying.

Personally I think Master/Slave should be renamed Mistress/Slave in the name of equality and progress. But this IETF draft thinks differently.

Symbolic proxy battles in an inanimate field is not constructive, and might distract from real liberation. Should female connectors have the same wages as male? Mind you, anything offensive is likely to be renamed. E.g. anything abbreviated to "KKK" will not be so for long. The purpose of protocols is not to communicate, not to annoy. The latter is incidental, from actual use.

It has nothing to do with liberalism, one way or another.

Neither with censorship. The sorry thing about being an employee is that you are supposed to do whatever the employer pay you to do.

Programmer jargon has been discussed for decades. "Blacklist" is silly, but master/slave, while evocative, isn't really that great term anyway. But due to hard lobbying by the Sadomasochistic Programmers Subjugation Front, the terminology has been kept.

The election is getting closer now by the day, and we have a candidate. Who will win the election and why not? Excitement awaits.

Tucker Carlson in 2024? Republicans see a frontrunner

Human trafficking or "slavery" is still very much a thing. Where's the outcry for more action there? Too busy burning down places here I guess. It's not the time to argue this who's lives matter tagline... Some understanding of the plight others still face would only bolster their point.

If we are to categorise the immediate global risks, no, police violence and racism would not reach the top. Not the misery of trafficking and exploitation. Right now, though, global food security tops the list. The greatest change in our life times has been we have solved food security on a global level. There are still a billion starving or underfed people in the world, but it is no longer a systematic issue. The famines we were used to when we were young were gone. Until now.

We might get through this, but then again we might not. Food supply was already a bit strained last year, and since then we have had a pandemic, massive locust swarms in Africa, Asia and South America, and a number of natural disasters.

Locusts, floods, and pestilence, it's almost like the good old days.
DnD Central / Re: DnD entropy
Maybe before this place becomes completely abandoned, we should have a members gettogether irl somewhere convenient, such as Brussels? Flights are cheap right now.

Nah, I guess this place is already dead. The last chance was last year...

Can I propose Last Year at Wuhan?
Given the atrocities committed in the Congo Free State, I don't think he's ever been particularly hip. Even back in his day he was quite controversial.

Leopold, reclining on his throne of severed hands, that would be a statue to remember.
America, you has been scammed!

he said, copying an article from Russia Today.