The DnD Sanctuary

General => DnD Central => Topic started by: rjhowie on 2020-03-21, 02:10:07

Title: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: rjhowie on 2020-03-21, 02:10:07
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vZ8sQQvqvrE&fbclid=IwAR3irlk7FE-q8eqr8jYjlkGHS2xj4DIn_kvMJQbNEi8wwjjnxq0O5FjTnWI

Of course we are all concerned about this matter but we are going banaas her ein Gt Britain repeating the same things over and over again. News is taken over time after time and when I was sent that film by a relation it made me sit up.
Title: Re: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: Frenzie on 2020-03-22, 09:26:49
Heh, he sure starts funny. "Don't worry, this isn't going to be one of those conspiracy theories. I'm going to explain what the hidden agenda is."

Can offing some 2-4% of "over-70s" save even a tenth as much money as has already gone up in smoke over the past few weeks? The basic premises seem a bit math-challenged.

In Belgium, the budget for healthcare is some 30 billion, pensions some 40 billion.[1] Let's say all of that is for over-70s, so 70 billion a year spent on performing our social duty.

Imagine 10% is killed off by corona, which gives us 7 billion in savings per annum.[2]
Four days ago, the economic damage from corona was estimated at 16 billion euro, so more than two years of worth of grossly overestimated savings. By the end of the crisis, even in terms of these grossly inflated numbers it'll probably have cost us two decades. Or in other words, basically breaking even.

Now if we put back in the reality that the costs for "over-70s" are maybe a fifth of that napkin calculation, the argument doesn't seem to have a leg to stand on.
This is comparatively more than most places.
The actual number is obviously less than 1.4 billion, because it's "only" about 2% and healthcare isn't just for the elderly anyway. Just grossly overestimating to give the argument its best fighting chance.
Title: Re: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: rjhowie on 2020-03-23, 01:50:37
Well he is a bit more informative and sensible than what you are doing in just swallowing the propaganda we are getting hit with and indeed his comments on the past emphasise the things we are being brained into. Tonight on BBCTV a medical expert actually said that wearing a mouth ask is not needed by everyone! As an illness the virus is a fact of life but the way we are being propagated on it is a groan and the comparison on Influenza is another danced away thing by the authorities.

So the virus does need to be dealt with but we are getting hysteria bashed on us and the media and officials along with the government is going over the same things over and over like an old record stuck on a player. News has been taken over , ordinary shops and not just pubs and restaurants closing and a stay in the house stance for ages. So is valid to tackle the health matter whilst being associated with common sense like that doctor in the film. Not much chance as going bananas whilst we are all prisoners is something else.
Title: Re: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: Frenzie on 2020-03-23, 08:52:00
His comments about the past come down to him being a doofus. They were wrong about AIDS, therefore they're wrong about COVID-19.

In a banal sense this is true of course. We're in the middle of this thing and there are still many unknowns. But AIDS was 40 years ago! We quite literally have our modern epidemiological models because of AIDS (tested/improved on SARS etc.), as it turned out to be absurdly wrong to assume everyone's effectively the same with regard to how likely they are to get it, how contagious they are, etc. From my understanding, modern models take every age and gender independently, and various other variables too. Still an abstraction of course, but one that's a heck of a lot less inaccurate and has proved fairly dependable on all kinds of infectious diseases -- albeit on more information than we have now. At the RIVM (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netherlands_National_Institute_for_Public_Health_and_the_Environment) they apparently have a Japanese intern who can translate Chinese, which has been instrumental for their ability to model COVID-19.

Unless you want to call The Lancet propaganda, see for example https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30567-5/fulltext to get it straight from the horse's mouth instead of filtered through mass media.

Going straight to the science, you'll find a distinction between what they found and government policy (because presumably they feel they can't explain not closing schools to the population):
Quote
School  closure,  a  major  pillar  of  the  response  to  pandemic  influenza  A,14  is  unlikely  to  be  effective  given  the  apparent  low  rate  of  infection  among  children,  although  data  are  scarce.

That's also where you'll find the age thing:
Quote
Data  from  China,  South  Korea,  Italy,  and  Iran  suggest  that  the  CFR  increases  sharply  with  age  and  is  higher  in  people  with  COVID­19  and  underlying  comorbidities.18Targeted  social  distancing  for  these  groups  could  be  the  most effective way to reduce morbidity and concomitant mortality.  During  the  outbreak  of  Ebola  virus  disease  in  west  Africa  in  2014-16,  deaths  from  other  causes  increased because of a saturated health­care system and deaths  of  health­care  workers.19  These  events  underline  the   importance   of   enhanced   support   for   health­care   infrastructure   and   effective   procedures for   protecting   staff from infection.

Of course I'm no expert on medical science, let alone virology. Perhaps all the studies are super flawed, or trying to confuse readers with the difference between statistically significant and actually meaningful. Significant only means that something isn't plain noise, but if you find that 5 in 100 elderly people die and 4 in 100 young people, that may not meaningful even if it is statistically significant. But this doctor isn't engaging with the science, basically just saying the UK government or media is stupid or evil. Perhaps he's mostly or even entirely right about all of that. But regardless if he is, he's using fallacious scientifically irrelevant reasoning, practically scientifically literate although surely he can't be (?), to prove his argument.

I decided to ignore all that because his conclusion doesn't exactly follow from his own premises. We've pretty much already lost more money than we could save, unless he assumes the UK government is both incredibly incapable and simultaneously evil. There could be something to that[1] but it sounds more like he considers them callous and clever.
At least for some governments; not quite sure the UK is one of them.
Title: Re: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: Belfrager on 2020-03-23, 10:40:03
A vida é um hospital
Life is a hospital
Onde quase tudo falta.
Where almost everything is missing.
Por isso ninguém se cura
That's why no one heals
E morrer é que é ter alta.
And to die is just to be discharged.

(by Fernando Pessoa, very badly translated by myself)

The modernist/hedonist society, when facing something that afraid them, is just pathetic. Cockroaches.

Title: Re: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: jax on 2020-03-29, 13:22:28
From my understanding, modern models take every age and gender independently, and various other variables too. Still an abstraction of course, but one that's a heck of a lot less inaccurate and has proved fairly dependable on all kinds of infectious diseases -- albeit on more information than we have now. At the RIVM (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netherlands_National_Institute_for_Public_Health_and_the_Environment) they apparently have a Japanese intern who can translate Chinese, which has been instrumental for their ability to model COVID-19.

I think it could be interesting to compare national models afterwards. They may vary quite significantly. The Norwegian seems fairly simple as described (https://www.fhi.no/contentassets/c9e459cd7cc24991810a0d28d7803bd0/covid-19-epidemien-risiko-prognose-og-respons-i-norge-etter-uke-12.--24.mars-2020.pdf).
Quote from: FHI
Vi benytter en matematisk modell som simulerer spredningen av covid-19 i Norge over tid og sted. Modellen tar hensyn til befolkningsstrukturen i hver kommune, informasjon om bevegelser mellom kommunene (med basis i opplysninger fire ganger i døgnet om mobiltelefoners bevegelser mellom kommunene). Modellen er en såkalt SEIR-modell uten aldersfordeling, uten hensyn til demografiske endringer og med tilfeldig miksing mellom mennesker.

Modellen starter med at kjente tilfeller plasseres i tid og sted og dobles. I modellen beveger mennesker seg så gjennom stadiene mottakelig (S), eksponert og smittet, men ikke smittsom (E), smittsom (I) og immun (eller død) (R). 

The "population structure" is not defined, but otherwise it seems to have a fairly simple demographic model without age distribution, though with dynamic (possibly realtime) information of travel between municipalities four times a day, based on mobile phone movements. People in this model (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compartmental_models_in_epidemiology#The_SEIR_model) have one of four states (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Recovered (or dead, same thing)), and mix at random.

I couldn't tell if this model would be as accurate as a more realistic model, but it should be possible to run the data and find out.
Title: Re: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: Frenzie on 2020-03-29, 14:36:25
Really, huh. Here's a Dutch article about it from last week. The headline says you can't just do these modern calculations on a (beer) coaster anymore.
https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2020/03/22/berekeningen-die-je-niet-meer-op-een-bierviltje-doet-a3994580

(Translations from DeepL with potentially some minor corrections by me in case I noticed a glaring inaccuracy.)
Quote
Ze zeggen het stuk voor stuk, de vijf wetenschappers die NRC voor dit artikel sprak, allemaal gespecialiseerd in modellering van uitbraken van infectieziekten. Zonder wiskundige modellen is de verspreiding van een infectieziekte niet te voorspellen, en is het effect van een maatregel niet door te rekenen. Bierviltjesberekeningen op Twitter werken niet in een hypercomplexe werkelijkheid waarin ziektes anders uitpakken per leeftijd, geslacht of bevolking. In een wereld waarin virussen hun eigen verspreidingssnelheid veranderen, omdat ze dwingen tot ander gedrag, of hun eigen dragers uitroeien, lopen lijnen niet recht. Het barst van de onverwachte drempelwaardes, zelfversnellende effecten en elkaar versterkende parameters.

Het was de uitbraak van hiv in de jaren 80 die het inzicht bracht dat we niet zonder complexe modellen konden, zegt Mart de Jong, hoogleraar kwantitatieve veterinaire epidemiologie aan de universiteit van Wageningen aan de telefoon. In het Westen was in de decennia daarvoor het idee gegroeid dat infectieziekten iets van het verleden waren, te danken aan hygiënemaatregelen, vaccins, antibiotica, de uitroeiing van pokken.
Quote
They say it all, the five scientists NRC spoke to for this article, all specialized in modelling outbreaks of infectious diseases. Without mathematical models, the spread of an infectious disease cannot be predicted, and the effect of a measure cannot be calculated. Beer mat calculations on Twitter do not work in a hyper-complex reality in which diseases turn out differently by age, gender or population. In a world where viruses change their own rate of spread because they force different behaviour, or eradicate their own carriers, lines do not run straight. It is bursting at the seams with unexpected threshold values, self accelerating effects and mutually reinforcing parameters.

It was the outbreak of HIV in the 1980s that brought the insight that we could not do without complex models, says Mart de Jong, Professor of Quantitative Veterinary Epidemiology at the University of Wageningen on the phone. In the preceding decades, the idea had grown in the West that infectious diseases were something of the past, thanks to hygiene measures, vaccines, antibiotics, and the eradication of smallpox.

Quote
De modellen die nu op de servers van het RIVM draaien, zijn uitgebreider en hebben veel meer datahonger. Jacco Wallinga van het RIVM voert ze in ieder geval drie soorten gegevens. Hij gaat er even voor zitten. ,,Ik zie dit maar als mijn pauze."

Eerst de bevolking. Alle mensen die in hetzelfde jaar geboren zijn, vormen in de RIVM-modellen één groep. Van elk geboortecohort voert het RIVM het percentage dat extra risico loopt in. ,,Dat komt van het CBS, dat zijn de mensen die een oproep van de huisarts krijgen voor een griepprik."

Per leeftijdsgroep probeert het RIVM vervolgens te schatten hoe besmettelijk die is. Wallinga: ,,Uit een goed geanalyseerde dataset uit Shenzhen blijkt dat kinderen minder besmettelijk zijn. Precies het omgekeerde als bij griep, waar kinderen de motor van de epidemie zijn. Maar dit is een inschatting hoor, het is nog niet zo hard."
Quote
The models now running on the RIVM servers are more elaborate and have much more data hunger. Jacco Wallinga of the RIVM feeds them at least three types of data. He sits down for a moment. "I see this as my break."

First the population. All people born in the same year form one group in the RIVM models. For each birth cohort, the RIVM enters the percentage at extra risk. "That comes from the CBS, that's the people who get a call from the doctor for a flu shot."

The RIVM then tries to estimate how contagious it is for each age group. Wallinga: "A well-analysed data set from Shenzhen shows that children are less contagious. Exactly the opposite as with flu, where children are the engine of the epidemic. But this is an estimate, it's not so hard."


Quote
De wetenschappers die NRC spreekt zijn niet bang om toe te geven dat het bij modelleren om schatten, uitzoeken en bijstellen gaat. Zelfs het simpelste modelletje zit vol onzekerheden.
Quote
The scientists who spoke to the NRC are not afraid to admit that modelling is about estimating, selecting and adjusting. Even the simplest model is full of uncertainties.

Quote
Wallinga vertelt over zo'n ,,totaal tegenintuïtief" effect dat hij in zijn eerdere modellen zag. Griepvaccinaties bij kinderen blijken juist voor hevigere griepuitbraken te zorgen. ,,Dat komt, denken we nu, omdat er door die vaccinaties minder natuurlijke immuniteit wordt opgebouwd in de bevolking, die beter beschermt. Als je dan een keer een mismatch hebt tussen het vaccin en de griep van dat jaar, dan heb je écht een grote uitbraak."

Je bedenkt het vooraf niet, zegt Wallinga. ,,Maar als je het ziet in je model, en je gaat redeneren, dan is het ineens logisch."

Heesterbeek kan meer van dat soort verrassingen opnoemen. Hij zag dat populaties woestijnratten nul pestuitbraken hebben, tótdat hun holen meer dan 35 procent bewoond zijn. En dat suboptimaal vaccineren tegen rode hond slechter werkt dan helemaal niet. ,,Het zijn waarnemingen die je niet zonder modellen kunt begrijpen."

Daarom zijn die modellen zo zinnig, zeggen de wetenschappers. Die kunnen snel uitrekenen dat het sluiten van landsgrenzen geen zin heeft als je zelf een besmettingshaard bent, of dat groepsimmuniteit óók een dempend effect heeft voordat het hoog genoeg is om het virus in te dammen.
Quote
Wallinga talks about such a "totally counterintuitive" effect that he saw in his earlier models. Influenza vaccinations in children appear to cause more severe flu outbreaks. "We now think that this is because these vaccinations reduce the natural immunity built up in the population, which is better protected. If you have a mismatch between the vaccine and the flu that year, then you really have a major outbreak".

You don't think about it beforehand, Wallinga says. "But if you see it in your model, and you start reasoning, then suddenly it makes sense."

Heesterbeek can list more surprises like that. He saw that populations of desert rats have zero plague outbreaks, until their burrows are more than 35 percent inhabited. And that suboptimal vaccination against rubella is worse than none at all. "They're observations you can't understand without models."

That's why those models make so much sense, the scientists say. They can quickly calculate that closing national borders makes no sense if you are a source of infection yourself, or that group immunity also has a dampening effect before it is high enough to contain the virus.
Title: Re: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: rjhowie on 2020-03-29, 22:46:28
One of the side issues of this matter is the media going on and on. Both half hour or hour news gets taken over and we get very little on any other routine stuff. What they do intimate could be done in ten minutes then the rest of the news. All that practically happens is that they go on and on virtually repeating or extending things well beyond what is required.
Title: Re: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: jax on 2020-03-30, 13:07:06
Really, huh. Here's a Dutch article about it from last week. The headline says you can't just do these modern calculations on a (beer) coaster anymore.

That's what they claimed, and I wouldn't be surprised if that was the case (it is well possible they have multiple models). AFAIK this agency has no foreign missions, and Norway hasn't had any serious epidemics for a while.

When this pandemic is over we will have tons of data at our disposal, in principle we could go down to every single infection event (who infected whom when and possibly where) if we put the resources into it. Even if we didn't, it would be more than plenty to test all the models in all the countries. How well would the Norwegian model work in the Netherlands, the Dutch model in Norway, and either one in Sweden? Have different models affected the decision-making?
Title: Re: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: rjhowie on 2020-03-30, 23:34:33
On a lower dashed note my barber is normally shut on a Monday but when the government came out with the mass shutung stuff to come out on the Tuesday that was me stuck. Iam really groaning now! :headbang:
Title: Re: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: ensbb3 on 2020-04-04, 06:00:48
I'm probably gonna have to let the missus trim mine... Incidentally I need to pull out my summer hats soon.

To be fair she was a little sauced and it was for fun last time. :worried:
Title: Re: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: rjhowie on 2020-04-05, 00:41:24
Well lucky you!  :up:  but I am single so will just have to roughly do some rough  cutting. Here I have routinely went onto the BBC teletext sections on the Net at the UK level and for here in Scotland and N. Ireland but am doing well ignoring the news and that section of things because all they damn well do is repeat things pad them out and so on. It is all just the same basiuc stuff but drag things out and ridiculous.
Title: Re: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: Colonel Rebel on 2020-04-06, 05:17:02
On a lower dashed note my barber is normally shut on a Monday but when the government came out with the mass shutung stuff to come out on the Tuesday that was me stuck. Iam really groaning now! :headbang:
Just finished watching the movie Tinker, Tailor, Spy, and heard this song. The "what shall I do??" part seems appropriate for you Mr. Howie.

https://youtu.be/TPSdpW3FN4w
Title: Re: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: rjhowie on 2020-04-06, 23:33:15
Well I will have to buy a big pair of dashed scissors out a supermarket and roughly cut back. Our government is of course vague as to when we will get access to places apart from a supermarket. Sweden is still relatively free and if there I could go to a cinema, cafe, restaurant but furniture, etc, etc. Today in one of two supermarkets I pop int an assistant stopped to have a briefly friendly chat and when I raised my feelings on the controls going on he (a young man) he totally and with no hesitation agreed with me. There have been other occasions having a private chat have had the same reaction. Okay most will keep passingly zipped but this present way of things is not pleasant and people gradually will widely get strained by it. Having had public office in my city I have in some subjects operated reasonably but in strong points I will not be zipped. At least buses still running even if on a reduced basis and often empty of just with one or two on board (including me of course!). Trains are virtually empty ande improved timetabled!

If course any national health matter is of concern and so on however people will not be able to keep coping with being stuck in apart from an odd walk or supermarket trip, etc.  So that doctor in the film I still feel has a point to make and lucky Swedes.
Title: Re: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: ensbb3 on 2020-04-08, 06:20:59
Can literally save lives by sitting home doing nothing and people are still messing this up. smh. 
Title: Re: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: Belfrager on 2020-04-08, 07:10:42
It is dangerous when the State takes liberty from the people. Always allegedly for our own good and always for never give it back.
This is going to be like the eleven of September pretext, less and less freedom.

Like most of the dictatorial situations, it is supported by a large part of the population that even asks for more.

The actual situation is not about health concerns anymore, it clearly turned into sanitary proto-fascism spreading all over the world.
Nobody ever thought that the future would be this shit.
Title: Re: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: jax on 2020-04-08, 07:36:27
https://twitter.com/jaxroam/status/1240522381673877505


Drastic, authoritarian measures will inevitably come, even by non-authoritarian governments, when epidemic is not under control.

Difference between non-authoritarian and authoritarian governments is what else they will use those measures for.
Title: Re: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: rjhowie on 2020-04-09, 00:40:15
Sympathise there on what you have directly stated Belfrager. Some individuals I have known or others whom I have been quietly direct with sympathised with me but of course ensured they were not heard. Fortunate Swedes.
Title: Re: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: Belfrager on 2020-04-11, 12:12:48
Covid-19 world data (https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6) well presented.
By Johns Hopkins Univerity.
Title: Re: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: ensbb3 on 2020-04-11, 19:22:16
Mongolia for the win, again.

If the article I read is accurate they've had 4 cases confirmed. Apparently brought in by a Frenchman and they are treating him. Retroactive testing shows people possibly exposed are negative.

Quote
https://www.forbes.com/sites/breannawilson/2020/03/16/mongolia-announces-3-new-covid-19-cases-totaling-4-how-they-got-coronavirus-precautions-right/#1d8b40c84fc9
Title: Re: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: rjhowie on 2020-04-13, 00:09:52
I will be glad when we get some normality apart from only getting to supermarkets or food shops. I am missing being out and popping into a cafe or restaurant. Swedish folk are fortunate!
Title: Re: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: rjhowie on 2020-04-17, 00:17:33
And I have now discovered there are countries in Europe slowly starting to open up again.
Title: Re: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: ensbb3 on 2020-04-17, 01:44:22
A second wave is a very real concern. I hope the best for all.
Title: Re: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: jax on 2020-04-17, 06:12:01
Some breakouts in Harbin (NE China, not far from Russia) in north and Guangzhou (aka Canton) in south.  Not really second wave yet, though.
Title: Re: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: rjhowie on 2020-04-25, 02:05:37
The latest country to start opening routine shops is Belgium so fortunate Belgians. Now we have a senior Fire Brigade Union wallah wanting fire brigade staff, NHS staff and others all to have an automatic pay rise.! The one thing he did say that I was okay with was that hand clapping was not the answer an in hard fact that thing did not happens everywhere and although I am generally concerned about the virus there is an overdrive emotionally going on and bordering on that mawkish corner again.  Now by the way the B&Q stores are all re-opening now. (Argos branches too!). When a tea room or cafe gets back and I go in for a coffe/tea  and cake will give them a box of chocolates for cancelling my fed upness.
Title: Re: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: rjhowie on 2020-05-08, 00:42:00
We are behind what is happening in Europe about gradual re-openings. Now the Prime Minister will say something this weekend about a gradual kind of re-opening. Know it will be gradual but hope my boredom and being control freaked also gradually demises. However that woman Sturgeon the First Minister of Scotland (groan) came on television being the very opposite and nippy. She really angered me about the moments she was being more or less being okay. Eh? She also made no comment that up here family crisis situations have been rising and she was as balanced as a ton on one scale and a stone on the other.
Title: Re: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: ensbb3 on 2020-05-08, 06:17:41
If anyone is curious,  a stone weighs 14 pounds. 🤔

Quote from: Wiki
When used as a measurement of body weight the UK practice remains to use the stone of 14 pounds as the primary measure e.g. "11 stone 4 pounds", rather than "158 pounds" (as done in the US),[13] or "72 kilograms" as used elsewhere.
Wiki (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pound_(mass))

 :sherlock: Guess I'm bored too.
Title: Re: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: Frenzie on 2020-05-08, 09:25:49
If you care about how large the numbers sound then 11 stone is probably more attractive than 70 kilo, let alone 150 pounds. :D
Title: Re: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: rjhowie on 2020-05-09, 02:11:44
The Prime Minister's announcements this Sunday will only be a very light intimation and if people think that cafes, hairdressers, dry cleaners and so on are going to open you can forget it. The process of catching up on places in Europe will be so slow and only increase my passing personal boredom. Tat First Minister of Scotland makes me groan all the time so that is a regular thing I am stuck with. We will be behind more and more places in Europe so Sunday will be sod all for an improvement. When walking home from a town next my city along a canal-side I noticed a father, mother and wee boy all sitting next the path with carry outs from KFC. When I go for a walk and get the eventual privilege of an eating place inside then will feel great again.
Title: Re: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: ersi on 2020-05-10, 06:16:29
Some are winning, some are not https://www.endcoronavirus.org/countries

The rate-of-contagion curves for countries like USA, UK, and Sweden - those who seem to have adopted the "flock immunity" policy whether consciously (Sweden) or by way of incompetence (USA) - have been grouped together with Belarus, Russia, and Brazil, where the contagion is simply skyrocketing.

I have my doubts about the flock immunity point of view. If it worked against something like flu, we would not have much flu these days after having had it regularly almost every winter for over a century. Yet we still have flu - less with those who observe the hygiene and wear clothing appropriate to the season.

So I tend to side with the distancing policy. And I am quite sure it is a disease of cities and crowded places. It would be interesting to see the countryside-vs-city statistics of course.
Title: Re: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: krake on 2020-05-10, 10:27:05
Speaking of epidemics and best prepared countries

(https://www.moonofalabama.org/images10/bestprepared.jpg)

It illustrates how reality can damage credibility of our free media, directly owned or sponsored by a handful of (unbiased  :right: ) billionaires.
Title: Re: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: Frenzie on 2020-05-10, 14:05:08
I have my doubts about the flock immunity point of view. If it worked against something like flu, we would not have much flu these days after having had it regularly almost every winter for over a century. Yet we still have flu - less with those who observe the hygiene and wear clothing appropriate to the season.
The RIVM says that counter-intuitively, the more people have received the flu vaccine the worse outbreaks get. Because then there's less herd resistance. As such the yearly flu vaccine should be given primarily or perhaps even exclusively to risk groups for best results.

It illustrates how reality can damage credibility of our free media, directly owned or sponsored by a handful of (unbiased  :right:  ) billionaires.
I don't see how, unless you mean that China was rated significantly too highly. Detaining doctors for spreading "false rumors" evidently wasn't part of the rankings. Snark somewhat aside, Forbes' clickbait "most prepared" heading clearly means "less badly prepared." That's why it's yellow rather than green. And did you look at the numbers? You might notice that China ranked in the 50s rather than the 30s in large part because of zoonotic disease risk! You know, like viruses from bats or pangolins. ;) The other ranking in which China negatively stands out is health care access. So setting aside that you should probably judge data on the basis of what knowledge was available at the time, I'm not sure your claim is supported regardless.

Full data set here: https://www.ghsindex.org/

The US ranks highly primarily because (if the rankings are to be believed) the risk for pathogens escaping from American labs and similar such rankings is the very lowest in the world. In actual practice one imagines there's very little difference between the top 20-30 countries in matters like lab safety but that's what you get when you do rankings I suppose. You'll note the US actually ranked quite badly in response plans, and that doesn't factor in political unwillingness. They also rank 175th in health care access. Perhaps those should weigh more heavily in the scale, especially when you refer to it as "preparedness" like Forbes did, when it's actually called the health security index ranking. Which is a combination of many factors, and curiously enough that which would most commonly be called preparedness is precisely where the US scores terribly. The report itself is broken down into prevent, detect, respond, health, norms, risk. The US scores badly in respond and not fantastic in health. China scores badly in prevent and somewhat bad in health.

But in spite of all that, if it had been a more ebola-type thing or even more SARS-like, the other factors that make up the index would've weighed through much more heavily.

PS The Forbes article in question seems to be https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2020/01/27/the-countries-best-and-worst-prepared-for-an-epidemic-infographic/ I'm not sure how well they actually read the report they're talking about tbh; it looks to me like they took a quick glance and decided what the overall index seemed to show would be a nice combination of implicitly comforting the American audience combined with a nice compassionate we should care for Africa sentiment.
Title: Re: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: ersi on 2020-05-10, 16:54:21
The RIVM says that counter-intuitively, the more people have received the flu vaccine the worse outbreaks get. Because then there's less herd resistance. As such the yearly flu vaccine should be given primarily or perhaps even exclusively to risk groups for best results.
Assuming that there is no herd immunity to this thing, this is not counter-intuitive at all. Vaccination is exposing people to the disease, and the more people you expose, the more get sick, straightforwardly. Herd immunity, if any, can be observed at later waves and I don't think we are seeing any with flu-like diseases. We have already been exposed to it for a bunch of generations. I'll stay at the country house another week.
Title: Re: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: Frenzie on 2020-05-11, 13:03:25
Herd immunity, if any, can be observed at later waves and I don't think we are seeing any with flu-like diseases.
You don't say. ;) That's exactly what it's talking about. It's "counter-intuitive" because that's not how it works for bacteria, only for viruses like the flu.
Title: Re: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: rjhowie on 2020-05-12, 23:32:24
Here in Gt Britain we are getting this groaning attitude going on between the different countries. In Ulster they are developing a slow five or so gradual advances (with the Republic already moving) and in England some slow but equally advancing moves. Wales being nippy no doubt due to the party in charge of the Assembly. However here in Scotland that wee pest Sturgeon is on being stroppy with the Prime Minister. Trying to give the impression that she and her control lot are being better at strictness yet it is now a truth that when the virus happened earlier in Edinburgh she kept quiet so borders on being hypocritical. One our newspapers has publicly shown that!
Title: Re: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: Luxor on 2020-05-13, 11:45:16
Sturgeon is on being stroppy with the Prime Minister.
No she isn't, stop talking nonsense. She's trying to keep people alive. Though why she bothers with some folk is beyond me.
Title: Re: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: rjhowie on 2020-05-13, 21:00:29
My I inform folk that you know who is talking nonsense.Sturgeon and early February attitudes is not something made up but when the subject raised in press she got stroppy.  She is including on this virus matter being very confrontational and as south of the border slowly moves we will continue to get this nationalist v UK stance. How dare a person contradict another on politics!

Meanwhile I still go out.
Title: Re: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: Luxor on 2020-05-14, 12:25:37
She is including on this virus matter being very confrontational

Complete and utter drivel.
In her daily briefings you see the pathetic unionist press we have, trying to get her to say something about the clown Boris. But she swats them away as she's not going to play their silly games.

Meanwhile I still go out.
Well seeing as you're allowed out, why wouldn't you.
Title: Re: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: rjhowie on 2020-05-14, 17:24:18
You unfortunately Luxor are acting a bit like her as if know all. The virus is also declining here too but yoiu do I am afraid come over all arrogant and bias nationalism at it's more sad elements. I have a long associate who is SNP but we can differ but you get huffy two shoes at your political stance being changed. We live in a democracy and I would further remind you and others that it was the Boris government which produced more money for Scotland apart from the Barnett Formula we still get. If not in the UK that loss would be catastrophic but neatly ignored by nationalists including Luxor.

There was a passing time when i tried to make allowances for her because she is tiny even i high heels (had a picture showing her once from the back while she spoke from a lectern and it showed she was on a low box to be more obvious. Many small people do get a bit more mouthy due to that. I would remind wider readers that Sturgeon always is a bit confrontational because she is an independence Scots politics fan. Luxor can slag me off all he immediately likes want but the portrayal being shown here is a bit negative, arrogant and her, him and the rest of that corner just want to be so distant from the UK no matter how much they get financially. And finally she should have been getting round to something more progressive than just sticking to the control freak issue because want to be separate from GB.
Title: Re: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: Luxor on 2020-05-14, 17:43:39
Not getting into it rj. Move on.
Title: Re: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: rjhowie on 2020-05-15, 00:35:20
Well Luxor it would be just really us two and the rest sitting puzzled!  :D
Title: Re: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: Luxor on 2020-05-15, 12:09:11
No! It would be the rest of the members here getting as  bored I am. Enough!
Title: Re: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: rjhowie on 2020-05-16, 00:17:16
Well your imbalance is used as an excuse dear man. When i can pop into McDonald's for a coffee, doughnut and read my paper I will be nice (maybe) to your female actor leader! By then also the control freakery will be history and the boredom gone folks!  :cheers:
Title: Re: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: rjhowie on 2020-05-17, 20:19:23
Leaving aside that grossly superior style attitude that actually does little. Sturgeon also includes the situation on senior nursing homes. And that north of the Border IS HER department!
Title: Re: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: rjhowie on 2020-05-21, 19:19:46
That woman also belligerently acts as if in an independence corner and misused the virus situation as part of her head shaking stances.
Title: Re: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: Luxor on 2020-05-21, 20:18:38
It's called being a leader and she has been praised by many, even by her harshest critics. Guess the problem is you not her.
Title: Re: British doctor dismisses the virus panic situation
Post by: rjhowie on 2020-05-24, 00:27:39
Well I do have to accept as factual that as you are from her corner you will have a high regard for her but I must also remind you when in that mode that we live in a democracy and I will equally say there are therefor many people like me who have little time for her. To the rest of folk here I would remind that she is the First Minister of a constituent country of Gt Britain and not a typical Prime Minister stance although she acts as if she has! What my corner gets is a rabid attitude as if we have on right to differ or take her or nationalism on. Trouble is that too many Nats get hoity toity when taken on as if other Scots here have little right or should automatically be independent minded.