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Topic: Anthropogenic Global Warming (Read 109016 times)

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Anthropogenic Global Warming
It's official -- Hell has frozen over...
Yahoo! UK & Ireland News and BBC Newcastle
  • Last Edit: 2014-01-10, 16:00:55 by Josh

  • Belfrager
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #775
Can you show me that what you'd accept and what you propose is worthy?

I can show nothing to a blind man...

I wasn't mentioning aristocracies, I was mentioning simple public servants. There was a time when public service was considered a Mission, not a mere job or, even worst, a way to get rich through corruption.

There are alternatives to the moral swamp western countries are being pushed to.

At the bottom line, the climate change problem we've been discussing represents very much how far induced self destruction can go.
A matter of attitude.

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #776
At the bottom line, the climate change problem we've been discussing represents very much how far induced self destruction can go.

Destruction both environmental and economic. Who else say John Arnold's tweet "With few hedges for '16, half of US energy industry will be bankrupt in 6 months with prices at these levels.  OPEC definitely smells blood." Relying on fossil fuels, especially at such volatile prices is not a good path to the economic future. The Republican answer is the Canadian Oil Sands and for the oil to be pumped through the US via the Keystone XL pipeline. There is some disagreement about the price levels for that to be profitable, but it seems to be anywhere from 70 - 80 USD per barrel. The price has hit 36 USD. So right now that source of petroleum will incur huge losses (will that have to be paid for the the taxpayers, Oakdale?), in addition to causing even more environmental damage than conventional drilling.  Some of the price of oil is completely divorced from supply and demand and is controlled by speculation so in a few months it could be 100 USD. We need sources of energy that are not subject to such wild and artificial price swings, such as solar. As shown about, that's becoming an increasingly viable option now that the issue of "What do you do when the sun down goes down or when it's cloudy?" has been resolved.
"What kind of man would put a known criminal in charge of a major branch of government? Apart from, say, the average voter."
― Terry Pratchett, Going Postal

  • ensbb3
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #777
half of US energy industry will be bankrupt in 6 months with prices at these levels.

Haha. Still this thread moves on the same course of nothing but hype.


Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #778
Is it? Oil and Gas Bankruptcy Climbs to More than $15 Billion in 2015 . But if half the industry files for bankruptcy or not is beside the point (of course, nobody actually said they would. Arnold just offered a scenario that probably wasn't meant to be taken literally to illustrate the bad situation the energy is in.) The real question becomes why do we want so much of the economy at the mercy of commodities the fluctuate so wildly in price? The more sensible long-term model would seem to be reduce demand for fossil fuels in favor of energy sources with a low, predicable cost.
"What kind of man would put a known criminal in charge of a major branch of government? Apart from, say, the average voter."
― Terry Pratchett, Going Postal

  • OakdaleFTL
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #779
I love seeing this sort of "prediction":
Quote
Future crude oil prices for December 2024 currently sit at just $54.96.
If I recall correctly, peak oil predictions said we'd be out of crude by now... The folks who "predict" the end of "natural" resources seem to have ulterior motives: They mostly seem to want to limit human reproduction. Apparently, they don't believe in Darwinian evolution; or they they don't like it...
That seems very strange, to me. (Anyone who better understands it should please post their insights...)
I'm pretty sure that speculators and companies who provide the products crude oil makes available will reach an accommodation -- it's a "free market" kind of thing.
The more sensible long-term model would seem to be reduce demand for fossil fuels in favor of energy sources with a low, predicable cost.
What you're really saying is: Command and control economies work!
All the evidence is against this contention. But you're not an "evidence" kind of guy, are you? :)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote
Creditors with secured debt, which is backed by collateral, are paid back first after the company files Chapter 11, with those holding unsecured debt paid next. Common equity stockholders are last in line. Although a company may emerge from bankruptcy as a viable entity, generally, the creditors and the bondholders become the new owners of the shares.
Obama's administration made that a political football, and -somehow- found a running back willing to take it to the end zone: The federal government now decides who is a stakeholder; if they're administration-friendly, they're entitled. If they're not, their legal rights are abrogated...
(Of course, you don't remember this, Sang. You never acknowledged it.)

Is there no circumstance that would let you be comfortable with less government...?
  • Last Edit: 2015-12-23, 10:34:51 by OakdaleFTL
进行 ...
"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
No one listens to me as much as I do and even I have my limits...
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #780
As per usual, you go for the strawmen instead understanding the point and somehow think it's Obama's nefarious doing. :zzz: And yet, you don't seem tp understand that price isn't really a predication, it's the going commodity futures price, which very subject to change. For all we know, a million people worldwide can buy Dec 2024 oil futures and send it soaring to 80 USD or higher. Nobody is pretending to really know the price of oil that far in advance will be. Commodities futures trading is hardly anything new. :p
What you're really saying is: Command and control economies work!

How did you pull that out of your ass? Oh yes, you pull anything from the region of your body to use as a strawman against me even if I said didn't remotely say any such thing. My expectation would be for Abengoa or some other forward thinking company to build something like their Solana plant, which has zero to do with your nonsense.
"What kind of man would put a known criminal in charge of a major branch of government? Apart from, say, the average voter."
― Terry Pratchett, Going Postal

  • Belfrager
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #781
The real question becomes why do we want so much of the economy at the mercy of commodities the fluctuate so wildly in price? The more sensible long-term model would seem to be reduce demand for fossil fuels in favor of energy sources with a low, predicable cost.

Because there's no such thing as the public good only private interests.

Only a strong public opinon with environmental and energetic policy awareness towards the adoption of sustainable devellopment models worldwide, that only elects politicians that actively works in the defense of the public good, can change this.

And we still have to see if democratic systems will survive to such a menace to the actual status quo, that's not a guaranteed thing.

A matter of attitude.

  • ensbb3
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #782
Is it?

Yes. A link to an oil company PR firm would support the notion.

For a 99%er you forget where the money goes. That's mostly shell companies and secondary investments that where created when resource acquisitions were low. Makes the money look spread out. Investors/executive still cashed out. Most of those companies were designed to fold. Understanding what Trump means when asked about the companies he's had go bankrupt may help. He says he didn't lose money. That's how the laws in this country work. And he's right.
  • Last Edit: 2015-12-23, 22:47:04 by ensbb3

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #783
As you completely ignore the reason those firms are in trouble and it's far from being by design.

Now back to solar power and corruption. I'll just copy/paste this Press Release by Solar City since it pretty well speaks for itself. :(
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/following-anti-solar-decision-by-governor-sandovals-puc-solarcity-to-cease-nevada-sales-and-installations-fight-to-protect-customers-and-employees-300196980.html

Quote
LAS VEGAS, Dec. 23, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- SolarCity (Nasdaq: SCTY) today announced that as a result of the decision by the Nevada Public Utilities Commission to severely undermine Nevadans' ability to go solar, the company is ceasing solar sales and installation in the state effective immediately.

"This is a very difficult decision but Governor Sandoval and his PUC leave us no choice. The people of Nevada have consistently chosen solar, but yesterday their state government decided to end customer choice, damage the state's economy, and jeopardize thousands of jobs," said SolarCity CEO Lyndon Rive. "The PUC has protected NV Energy's monopoly, and everyone else will lose. We have no alternative but to cease Nevada sales and installations, but we will fight this flawed decision on behalf of our Nevada customers and employees."

Governor Sandoval's Office of Economic Development helped bring SolarCity to Nevada in 2013, and encouraged the company to create local jobs. Accepting the Governor's invitation, the company expanded to Nevada and has hired more than 2,000 local workers in just over two years. The state also created a rebate program to entice Nevadans to go solar, and many chose to do so. The rooftop solar industry helped Nevada become number one in the nation in solar jobs per capita in 2014. With abundant sunshine and a populace eager to adopt solar energy and save on electricity bills, the industry was poised to become a cornerstone of the state's innovation economy.

Now, in what amounts to a massive bait and switch for the local solar industry and its customers right before the holidays, the Governor's PUC has effectively shut down the rooftop solar industry and taken the extraordinary step to punish over 12,000 existing solar customers, including schools, with exorbitant fees in what appears to be an attempt to protect the profits of the state's largest utility. All three members of the PUC, who voted unanimously to change the rules, were appointed by Governor Sandoval.

"Most disturbing is the PUC's decision to retroactively sabotage existing solar customers' investments by changing the rules on them," continued Rive. "The Nevada government encouraged these people to go solar with financial incentives and pro-solar policies, and now the same government is punishing them for their decision with new costs they couldn't have foreseen. These actions are certainly unethical, unprecedented, and possibly unlawful.  While the rest of the country embraces a clean energy future, Nevada is moving backwards."

About SolarCity
SolarCity® (NASDAQ: SCTY) provides clean energy. The company has disrupted the century-old energy industry by providing renewable electricity directly to homeowners, businesses and government organizations for less than they spend on utility bills. SolarCity gives customers control of their energy costs to protect them from rising rates. The company makes solar energy easy by taking care of everything from design and permitting to monitoring and maintenance. SolarCity currently serves 15 states and signs up a new customer every minute of the work day. Visit the company online at www.solarcity.com and follow the company on Facebook & Twitter.

This release contains forward-looking statements including, but not limited to, statements regarding reduction in solar industry jobs. Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of the times at, or by, which such performance or results will be achieved, if at all. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in or suggested by the forward looking statements. You should read the section entitled "Risk Factors" in SolarCity's quarterly report on Form 10-Q, which has been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and identifies certain of these and additional risks and uncertainties. We do not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise.



SOURCE SolarCity


Nice one. Kill an industry for the sake of his cronies at Nevada Energy :yes: Good job :yes: :yes:
"What kind of man would put a known criminal in charge of a major branch of government? Apart from, say, the average voter."
― Terry Pratchett, Going Postal

  • OakdaleFTL
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #784
The population of Nevada is...2.839 million (2014). The people affected by this (admittedly egregious and outrageous governmental action) are: those who are only they that "includes about 17,000 Nevada customers"...
I don't know what the PUC has done, or what they want to do. But Sang doesn't do numbers... Can someone else?
What I'd want to know is: Is this merely a sun-setting of a preference? Or is it a retaliation, for a revenue sink...?

I'm sorry to say this (since you should have known it already...) but government regulation leads to regulatory capture. And we both know which party is more practiced at that...
  • Last Edit: 2015-12-25, 09:52:32 by OakdaleFTL
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"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
No one listens to me as much as I do and even I have my limits...
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #785
Out of the two of us, I'm the only one that ever offered numbers, so don't even try it. Mathematics and science seem to fly right over your head; with the correctness of the science being determined the right-wing blog that you just read and invented scandals against the IPCC (checking actual past temperature readings to adjust climatic models accordingly...the scoundrels! :p ).

Now back to the issue at hand, which is no the number of customers effected (keep in mind how recently Solar City even arrived in Las Vegas...) At is issue is a Republican (of course...) Governor's Puc deliberately protecting a monopoly by nipping competition in the bud and to additional injury, they're charging Solar City's customers retroactive fees for having installed the solar panels. What precedent does this set for other states. Population wise, Nevada is small state with roughly 2/3 the population in the Las Vegas metro area and most of the remainder is Reno's. Even so, if the PUC is allowed to get away with this, it tells larger states they can do the same thing. What we don't need is more government regulation to protect entrenched industries.

"What kind of man would put a known criminal in charge of a major branch of government? Apart from, say, the average voter."
― Terry Pratchett, Going Postal

  • OakdaleFTL
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #786
checking actual past temperature readings to adjust climatic models accordingly...the scoundrels!
Changing the previous data to make an "artifactual" trend is not quite the same thing as tuning the models, Sang. Likewise, "adjusting" the modern buoy readings to agree with the two-century's old bucket and thermometer readings is counter-intuitive...
But the IPCC has a remit: Find anthropogenic CO2-induced "climate change". That's their stated job, and has been from the gitgo. (You'd know this, had you read more of their reports than what appears in their press releases...)

Do you seriously contend that Judith Curry's blog is "right wing"? :)

I still find it hilarious that both Michael Mann and Gavin Schmidt wanted to Hari Seldon when they grew up! (Do you want to be the Mule...? :) )
进行 ...
"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
No one listens to me as much as I do and even I have my limits...
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #787
I'm not up to speed on this issue, but my guess is that an important element is energy buyback on the part of the state. What this amounts to is the state saying no to the subsidization of those who have gone solar at the detriment of everybody who hasn't.

There are about a million households in the state, and about 17,000 of them have chosen to go solar. SolarCity Corp. is concerned that the state's decision will hurt business. Anybody surprised?

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #788
What this amounts to is the state saying no to the subsidization of those who have gone solar at the detriment of everybody who hasn't.

Not quit. They're retroactively penalizing people that already got solar and effectively crushing competition for Nevada Energy in its infancy.
"What kind of man would put a known criminal in charge of a major branch of government? Apart from, say, the average voter."
― Terry Pratchett, Going Postal

  • OakdaleFTL
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #789
Lewandowsky (and, of course, Oreskes) have a new paper published in a journal of the American Meteorological Society's Bulletin: read it here...
You can read their CVs, if you aren't already familiar with them, by using that new-fangled Google thingie! :)

Do you still, Sang, maintain that this is "science"...? :)

(You could read this; but you won't!)
  • Last Edit: 2016-01-04, 07:03:18 by OakdaleFTL
进行 ...
"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
No one listens to me as much as I do and even I have my limits...
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #790
Of course it's science. What isn't science is making about people that I actually don't give a rat's flea-infested ass about. Of course, you also seem to think it's all about the IPCC (when you were silly enough not to think thousands of scientists independently examining the evidence and tried to reduce that number to however many are on the IPCC and think everything is based on climate models....)

By why deny it at all and in the process defending the fossil fuel industry when better alternatives are making themselves available. The air will still be cleaner if Anthropogenic climate change is correct or not and the technologies bring bring the promise of economic growth to boot. We're already seeing it in Nevada. It makes zero sense (or cents...) to not get with the times
"What kind of man would put a known criminal in charge of a major branch of government? Apart from, say, the average voter."
― Terry Pratchett, Going Postal

  • mjmsprt40
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  • undocumented space alien
Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #791
This is something I somehow hadn't expected to see this year. We have another Polar Vortex coming to the US Northeast and Upper Midwest.

As anybody who can look at the weather knows by now, El Nino has been ruling the roost since September or thereabouts, making this one of the warmest winters in this neck of the woods. We got no snow for almost the entire month of December, did get a few inches at the very end of the month. January is a bit chilly so far, but not really what you'd call cold for this time of year. This is on account of El Nino being in town and moderating temps across the entire continent.

Now here comes a Polar Vortex. It'll be cold, maybe get some snow out of it. Then, probably back to El Nino conditions within a week.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/polar-vortex-to-usher-widespre/54599939
What would happen if a large asteroid slammed into the Earth?
According to several tests involving a watermelon and a large hammer, it would be really bad!

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #792
Yup. The weather's been nice and screwy this winter. For a while, we were colder than Buffalo, Ny :faint:
"What kind of man would put a known criminal in charge of a major branch of government? Apart from, say, the average voter."
― Terry Pratchett, Going Postal

  • rjhowie
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #793
You do tend to get bad snow over there mjsmsprt40 but this deluge is lot worse than traditionally.  Dis someone not say the worst since the late 1800's?
"Quit you like men:be strong"

  • OakdaleFTL
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #794
this deluge is lot worse than traditionally
People tend to have short memories for this sort of thing... And the statistical teasing-out of anomalies is a poor substitute for a causal model.
(See the recent Mann et al. for an egregious example! :) )
进行 ...
"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
No one listens to me as much as I do and even I have my limits...
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman

  • krake
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #795

  • OakdaleFTL
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #796
I still like that song, Krake! And I still dislike how Michael Mann (and many of his co-authors) abuse statistics...
进行 ...
"Humor is emotional chaos remembered in tranquility." - James Thurber
No one listens to me as much as I do and even I have my limits...
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts!" - Richard Feynman

  • ersi
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #797

I still like that song, Krake! And I still dislike how Michael Mann (and many of his co-authors) abuse statistics...

You entered this thread by being fundamentally wrong about the nature of statistics. So you are wrong about that. But this thread is not really about the nature of statistics. It's about the impact of human activity on environment. Thus far you have not said anything relevant about it, other than implying that it cannot be measured statistically, so such impact is not there. Insofar as this is your assertion, you are wrong about that too.

Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #798
You entered this thread by being fundamentally wrong about the nature of statistics.
A quick read through of the article also shows him to be fundamentally wrong about the nature that research. In essence, what Mann et all did was filter out natural climate variability to determine the human impact. Unfortunately, Oakdale was looking for another strawman. In doing so, he failed to note the empirical data used in the researchers' findings. This is an understandable error since GOPers appear to be challenged in both basic reading skills and even more in science.

There is another basic issue with the article, however. As an experiment, I'll leave that to Oakdale to figure out on his own :devil:
"What kind of man would put a known criminal in charge of a major branch of government? Apart from, say, the average voter."
― Terry Pratchett, Going Postal

  • ensbb3
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Re: Anthropogenic Global Warming
Reply #799
I'll leave that to Oakdale to figure out on his own

Stop teasing him. He won't. I've secretly read the most of the links he's provided. Failed to see a relevant conclusion he's drawn yet.

Hell the odds were stacked in his favor on most of those politically driven papers.