Days left until Brexit: 478 (today)
Days since referendum: 530 (today)
Days since Article 50 was invoked: 252 (today)
Less than half total time, and less than two thirds Article 50-time, remains. The negotiations have barely started, and already halted.
These four requirements cannot simultaneously be fulfilled, and the last two are unacceptable to Ireland. If Ireland says no deal, then there is no deal, and the UK becomes a third world country as far as the EU is concerned.
- A border between the UK and the EU
- No border between Northern Ireland and the rest of UK
- No border between NI and Ireland
- No border between Ireland and the rest of EU
(1) is what the Brexiteers went to election on, (2) is a requirement from the DUP, whose support May's current government depends on, and for (3) and (4) Ireland holds the cards. Ireland (pop. 5M) has never been in as good a negotiating position relative to the UK (pop. 66M, of which NI 2M) as they are now, and they probably never will. They are not going to fold easily.
Short of giving N.I. to Ireland, which would break May's coalition, and requirement (2), they would either have to give Ireland what they want, or bribe them enough not to want it so much. THEN they have to bribe the DUP not to make too much of a stink about it. It's a good time to be Irish it seems.
Of course, if Britain sinks into the sea, that's bad for Ireland too, if not as much as for the British. And it would be bad for the EU as well, if not as much as for the Irish. There is a limit to Ireland's negotiation power, but I don't think it has been reached yet.
The economic rational thing to do would be to forego (1), the Norway option. Business would be happy, Ireland would cease to be a negotiation superpower (but for Ireland and N.I that would be a fallback to status quo, which is a pretty good anyway). Many of the remaining unresolved issues would disappear as if they never were.
The Hard Brexiteers would be furious though. It would be waving goodbye to brave new trade deals with India and Kenya. It too would probably be the end of May's government, and Britain would have been demoted from being the top power player at the EU to being a somewhat larger Norway.
Not doing so, the Ireland negotiations will drag on, leaving less time for the rest and risking EU overtime. In that scenario
every single EU country will become an Ireland.