Re: The comings and goings of the European Union
Reply #97 –
Population (in megapeople)
Albania 2.9 (60-80% Muslim)
Bosnia-Herzegovina 3.5 (46% Muslim, so plurality, not majority)
Kosovo 1.8 (90% Muslim)
Total 8.2
A large number of these are secular Muslims, Muslims as an ethnic marker, but not practising religion. This is very far from Saudi Arabia. The wars radicalised many, but actually less than disaffected youth in Western Europe (SA keeps pushing though). Roughly speaking the total number of Muslims would be the same as the total number of Muslims in France.
Serbia 7.0
Montenegro 0.6
Macedonia 2.1
Total 9.7
The total population of all six countries is less than Romania (or for that matter the number of Roma, gypsies, if we take the upper bound)
The most obvious problem with these countries is that they are dirt poor, even poorer than Bulgaria, today's poorest member. The second obvious problem is that they have all had recent experience with civil war, and there is still plenty bad blood. Third, none of them have good government, plenty corruption and crime. Today none of them would qualify. Would they qualify in 2025? They could, with sufficient improvements. It is also possible that the front-runners will change on the way.
Another class of problems is that they all, except Serbia that may count as mid-size, are small countries. Every country has a veto, and the number of possible vetos would go up from 27 to 33. Even with qualified voting this would be a significant shift toward the Balkans. If you want less power to Germany and France, great. Germany and France might not agree. There would be no obvious sponsors in the North, North-East, West or South-West as in other enlargements. But by virtue of these being small enlargements, they probably would pass, assuming the applicant countries are qualified.