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Topic: The Awesomesauce of the American 2024 Presidential Elections (Read 902 times)

  • jax
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  • Global Moderator
The Awesomesauce of the American 2024 Presidential Elections
The election is getting closer now by the day, and we have a candidate. Who will win the election and why not? Excitement awaits.

Tucker Carlson in 2024? Republicans see a frontrunner


  • Belfrager
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Re: The Awesomesauce of the American 2024 Presidential Elections
Reply #25
The authoritarian left is froth.
Soviet Union - from 1922 to 1991.
It seems to me an heavy kind of froth.
A matter of attitude.

  • jax
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  • Global Moderator
Re: The Awesomesauce of the American 2024 Presidential Elections
Reply #26
Oh, they are in ascendancy, and we can expect notable collateral damage. But on their own they are not in the position to take the reins of power. However, there is a worst case scenario, and in that 2024 will be the inflection point.

The right-wing lunacy in the US has reached its zenith and is terminal decline, while the left-wing lunacy has hardly begun. The right-wing is likely to be crazier (QAnon and beyond), but also more marginal and less influential.

I claim a Sanders horizon. Bernie Sanders is in a highly elliptic orbit around the Democratic party. For much of the election cycle Sanders is an independent outside the Democratic zone, but around the primaries he's in the zone. Those who then consider Sanders a traitor are not only outside the Democratic party, to them that party, not the Republicans, is their real enemy. Not all of them are communists or otherwise authoritarian left, but most of those who are, are outside the Sanders horizon. Their next real target will be 2024, but they will still not be at full strength.

Now the worst case scenario posits that the US will have the right-wing crazies and the left-wing crazies simultaneously, setting the conditions for a US Weimar Republic. This requires Trump to win 2020 and some other adverse events.

The power brokers of the Trump base know they are doomed, when they lose, they will never get power again. For some the past will also catch up with them. The power base for the Democratic party know that they should have power, but they don't. This will radicalise the left, particularly outside the Sanders horizon. This is that very situation that can break countries.

The US would be primed for a Germany 1930 between Nazis and communists type situation. It still need not go really bad, but even a moderately miserable scenario, 8 years with Trump, followed by 4+ years of a far-left radical will pretty much ruin the US for decades to come.