The election is getting closer now by the day, and we have a candidate. Who will win the election and why not? Excitement awaits.

Tucker Carlson in 2024? Republicans see a frontrunner

I just wrote a nice detailed long and pointed forensic analysis of The Howie Problem (...re: America). "Ctrl-a, delete" was a sensible application of my skill as an editor, and since every trade deserves honorable service I don't regret it at all!
RJ Howie! Shakes head, smiles slightly, and sighs: No True Scotsman, I presume!

Remember the earlier guy who won on MAGA platform?

Say what you will -good or bad- about Mr. Clinton, he was a wiley and effective politician; pretty good president, too. (Carter, on the other hand, was the consummate conniver; a skil of little use in the president's office... His securing his party's nomination Peter-Principle'd him out. Luckily, Reagan was waiting in the wings! :)
Good catch, ersi! Thanks.

(Eventually, you'll re-discover enough of reality to realize how right I've been...:)

(Eventually, you'll re-discover enough of reality to realize how right I've been...

Eventually I will stop being amazed how little sense of reality (or sense overall) you have.

Ever been anywhere at least two states away?

Unfortunately even allowing for sensible Americans the country has never been great. What it has always had is overdone self appraisal which has been farcical with the state of so many people in the country and the international interfering with other nations. Kind of shows a wide head shaking for the propaganda swallowed. As i say there are positive folk bu generally too many brained.There are many Americans (popped up in polls) who are not that happy just having the Democrats and Republicans and neither of those two solve the massive failings inside the USA and it's smart alec approach to other places. I sigh for sensibles over there.

Ever been anywhere at least two states away?

Yeah: I've been through most of the lower forty-eight; lived and worked in seven or eight, you don't count working just passing through...or just browsing. Haven't reached Alaska or Hawaii yet.
Colorado, Texas and Florida are places I'd re-settle down in, if I could bring myself to leave California again. The Carolinas are gorgeous, as are Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont. But they're none of them the kind of temperate clime I need. Same problem with the Dakotas, Montana, Illinois and Wisconsin... Delaware and Connecticut, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and D.C. are much like Massachusetts...where I was raised -though I'm a native Californian.
Been seventy-five miles north of Moncton, New Brunswick, Canada. Got family still in B.C. and -perhaps- elsewhere.
If you've gleaned from my stated preferences, you'll note: I don't like the cold; I can no longer take it. And since I am a man of meager means, my home must remain in a temperate zone (similar to southern Italy or Spain...). When I can, I travel some; and I don't expect you to realize the variety of what marvels can be reached from California's Central Valley in a two-hour drive!
Real mountains, forest primeval, rugged or gentle coastland and ocean! A few hours more even gets you high and low deserts...
I confess, the last decade or so, I've seldom gone past the foothills to the east or the coastal towns to the west, the capital, Sacramento to the north and Bakersfield to the  south; I haven't been to Los Angeles since my father died. And I haven't been to Reno, Nevada, since I committed the crime of matrimony -the second time...
I'm not much for amusement; play parks and such don't interest me. But I do like our state and national parks, historic places -you know the Spanish founded Missions here four hundred years ago? Many towns and settlements from before our Civil War (1860-1864) are preserved -at least in spirit- for the tourist in each of us!
Howie tells me to walk! I do, when I can... (less so, of course, since my stroke.) But I can drive completely out-of-city, out-of-town, beyond industry and congested commerce, in less than half-an-hour! And even on the way, orchards and crops, dairies and cattle ranches , sheep and pigs and llamas and goats graze or slop as if they belonged here-abouts, because they do.
As much as I've enjoyed big cities and northeastern village life, I prefer the "wide open spaces" of the west; "wide open" is not a clichè, ersi: I love the land and the people who live on it...
And the most of my family's here.

So, no, I'm not what would be called well-traveled; certainly not a world traveler. If I'm somewhat cosmopolitan in attitudes the closer to nature life around me is whittling away at that, scraping off the patina of civilization gone too far? Perhaps. I've seem wondrous and amazing things, met and enjoyed the company of various kinds of people, done lots of different kinds of work; I've not secured any academic creds, but I've lived in a few "college towns" and learned much from my brash inquisitivity!  And I'm a fan of libraries and bookstores (specially old ones...); one can find tutors and texts galore, and -since the advent of the internet- the opportunities for a determined autodidact are a thousand times greater.

So: I what way am I naive or secluded and sheltered from the "wide" world? How am I unfit to talk seriously with a petty bureaucrat who holds degrees in what are likely the equivalent of Basket Weaving and Self-Esteem (Through Proctology)?

the country has never been great. What it has always had is overdone self appraisal which has been farcical with the state of so many people in the country and the international interfering with other nations

In other words: It is on a par with every other nation, except those placid paradises of poverty and pestilence that verge upon a New Stone Age! How droll you are, you piquant paragons of decadence in the Old World who descry the faults of others from afar, and decry their accomplishments and successes... Get off yer duffs and do something useful! Dare something your fathers didn't...
Many a European does, I know. (The same is true of practically everywhere on Earth.) But the forum fidget-bus-ers and fuss-budgeters, the cynical carpers have their solace in ennui. They're welcome to it.
I'll take what vigorous life and a modicum of adventure offer, anyday!

Nope it is NOT like every other nation whatsoeve, haha!

It boasts about itself and very gung ho. Rabbits on about democracy and being a great nation for folk yet it doesn't matter a hoot who is in the White House the level of poor people, criminality daftness about gun people and so much more is a groan of I am afraid direct hypocrisy! The nonsense of gun ownership from early days going independent is a farce. There are nearly 700,000 police and around 1,300,000 military yet still has this damnable nonsense about right to bear arms??! Even though I allow for sensible Americans that there are so many gun fanatics that do not need to follow that nonsense says much. The general failings I have intimated on crime, poverty, prisoners, people on death row for ages and so on emphasises the unfortunate truth. It is money that runs America not sensible politics. I visited the USA away back in 1980 then again in 1982 as had met a couple on my train between NYC and Washington DC who lived in Philadelphia. They were a pair of retired journalists. The man had edited a magazine for the staff of the now gone Pennsylvania Rail Road (me being a rail fan got on well with him). Were keen to see me again and made a second trip to NY and went down to Philly to stay for a short time with them. Intelligent folk in a sense but asked if we had coloured television in Scotland! Have also visited the Netherlands tw ce and France once.

Met some nice people including a lady who shared coffee and biscuits with me on a train (other times used the restaurant car) chatted to a couple of NYPD officers in the street so though there are intelligent people over there there are far too many been brained into nonsense claims about their country as well as the need to have the nutty country in charge of the world! Politically as a system it fails as a world country sticks it's nose anywhere as the world saviour yet cannot do anything about millions of Yanks at home!!   

So: I what way am I naive or secluded and sheltered from the "wide" world? How am I unfit to talk seriously with a petty bureaucrat who holds degrees in what are likely the equivalent of Basket Weaving and Self-Esteem (Through Proctology)?

The fact that you are in a general state of invincible ignorance about most of your favourite topics, such as politics, law, justice, economics, etc. does not need further investigation or demonstration. It definitely is and remains. I have tried my best to discover if you have a valid reason for it.

Having travelled little is not much of an excuse. It is possible to learn about the world from books and the news without having to verify everything in person. All it takes is right thinking. You keep insisting on wrong thinking, particularly projection, e.g. Liberals are evil authoritarians who undermine the constitution - despite January 6, 2021, when the Republican representatives of the executive branch incited a mob attack on the legislative branch after having lost the election. For someone who cared about facts, January 6 would have provided an occasion to question one's own ideology a bit. You absolutely do not care. You prefer your ideological bubble. I doubt you have many like-minded friends, so it is not an echo-chamber, but rather a private comfy dream world that you will never challenge.

The best explanation to your condition is unquestioning faith in American messianic exceptionalism against all facts. It's wilful ideological partisan blindness. As a result, you have betrayed your own class, middle class or whatever they call it over there. From a socialist's perspective, class betrayal is the ultimate sin. But it is a grave sin even under Ayn Rand's Objectivism, because it makes you believe, act, and vote directly against your self-interest.

For example, if you believe in trickle-down economy, then you should welcome taxes on the rich, because (a) it's not you who will get taxed and (b) taxes on the rich is what makes their riches trickle down somewhat; there is no other effective mechanism for that. But instead, you proclaim that private property is a sacred basic human right, a sign of freedom or liberty. And even though you barely have any of this basic human right and liberty, you think you live in the promised land of justice and "pursuit of happiness", where rights are secured, and thank God not in anywhere else where the evil govt is taking all the rights away, despite of you barely having seen any other country.

I could go on. But maybe some other day. Continental Europeans have a great privilege in that they can travel just a few hundred miles in any direction to end up in an entirely different country, but this does not necessarily result in profitable learning. Observing with the right mindset does.

I do not think that Republican representatives wanted the violence that occurred at Washington DC nor did even President Trump want that. I would also remind you that the Democrat opposite numbers went ballistic in cities across America. I can recall one where the trouble makers took over a city centre for days!

Trouble with the country is that there is political control freaky over there. As I have previously pointed out the vast negatives on poverty jail numbers and people on death row for ages works under both those parties. The USA still has a base on Cuba and refuses to leave the place which adds to the hypocrisy. I did feel that routine people like Oakdale are suffering propaganda soaking when you look at all the massive failings in the country. Oh and let us not forget the mass hypocrisy of gun ownership. For tens of millions of the citizenry in nutjobland  constant nationalistic flag waving everywhere and not paying a damn heed to the national failings I have said on these forums. It is one thing being loyal to one's country but the US is nationally and internationally a farce I am afraid even allowing for sensible folk! The word 'awesome' is a national word now! 

a general state of invincible ignorance about most of your favourite topics, such as politics, law, justice, economics, etc.

:) Because I didn't have the parochial teachers you had? Didn't read the same stodgy tomes of ideological-ized theory, and "be a good little prole"? I fear for my country some. But do you still resent yours, for escaping its (enforced) "socialist" malaise? Not to worry, ersi: There's room in a market economy -and even room for advancement!- for those who would be minor functionaries!
Regarding "right mindsets" and such, perhaps you think I need "re-education"? I know of no authoritarian government that hasn't resorted to that practice, the aligning of its citizen's beliefs, speech and thought, with the official "party line." Why on earth should I allow politicians -at any level- to presume they (...or any gaggle of their experts...) know better, how I should live my life?
And -if you don;t mind, sir- I can and will continue to think for myself...
I'm not a ward of the state, a child of the revolution nor the protector of some mercurial "power structure" - I'm an American.

(Did you ever see the film "The Americanization of Emily"? (Paddy Chievski's script is wonderfully wry and worldly!) I highly recommend it. I suspect, ersi, the world gets you down because it hasn't lifted you up as high as you think it ought... :)

@RJHowie: You should read Taki's homage to Larry McMurtry (Apr. 10)... It should help dispel most of the awful mis-conceptions you have about America and Americans; if you read it. (If you have half a brain, or more.:) But I won't hold my breath! You, however, are encouraged to do so: If you need it badly enough, there's fresh air to be had...

I have no misconceptions dear ex-colonist! I spoke the strong truth about the tens of millions of poor, numbers in jail length of being in a death cell for ages, interfering in other countries going bananas about how great the place is! And all that nonsense you folk have about the numbers of guns bought. A massive armed forces matter and plenty of police 9 percentage who are nuts). It is not democracy that runs the country it the big money people and as I have laid out no matter whether a Republican or Democrat in the White House those things I say continue under both. Elections are just an exercise so go crazy about how exceptional the place is but in hard practice it is not. My visit years ago was pleasant enough and so to was the couple who suggested I return and visit them for a couple of days. So I did make it obvious there were decent Americans, etc but the country in general is kind of democratic farce with an electoral college thrown in (groan) and neither of the two big money parties can do much with those failings I remind of.  Globally it interferes with places across the globe instead of spending on their own people who are in massive millions getting poor. I don't hate Americans I would state but it is niggling so many are being brained into being the greatest place on earth and is directly obvious that is not the case! I'd even treat you to a meal you lucky man!   

Because I didn't have the parochial teachers you had? Didn't read the same stodgy tomes of ideological-ized theory, and "be a good little prole"?

How's the Athenian Constitution going? After school (after university, I mean) I have done about as much reading, studying and learning as at school, probably even more, so I can appropriately consider myself self-taught, not indoctrinated, particularly in the areas that are not my formal expertise. It is good to read a book every once in a while.

I fear for my country some.

What is there to fear for the most powerful country in the world? That the Commies will take it over? I know - the Democrats

But do you still resent yours, for escaping its (enforced) "socialist" malaise?

Hardly anyone over here has a problem recognising - at least in practice, if not in rhetoric - that the economy should be mixed: state-regulated on the macro level and "free" enterprise on the micro. Drawing the lines between them is of course an eternal debate. "Socialist" is not an issue.

In Estonia the more serious issue is the divide along ethnic lines - what is the country? For Estonians, the capital is Tallinn. For Russians, the capital is Moscow, Putin is the president, and Estonia is an aberration due to temporary unfortunate geopolitical circumstances. This divide most recently flared up during the vaccination campaign - Russians expect to be vaccinated with Sputnik V, the vaccine hailed on Russian TV, and refuse any western vaccines, which are dangerous according to Russian TV. Again, "socialist" is not an issue.

Regarding "right mindsets" and such, perhaps you think I need "re-education"?

More like self-cultivation to stop making a fool of yourself at dinner parties, official gatherings and such. But if those events are not on your horizon, then perhaps beware of accusing the police of being Commies when they randomly arrest you. Or something.

The right mindset would mitigate most conflicts, not exacerbate them. The fact that USA is the number 1 war criminal in the world demonstrates the wrong mindset. Who is the number 2 war criminal in the world, what do you think? North Korea, Iran, China, Russia? Whichever you pick, it would be a distant number 2, and Russia has the excuse of having undergone shrinking from their perceived identification with Soviet Union or (worse) the (ex-)Communist bloc, while USA has only ever been the aggressor, having never undergone any shrinking and any threat against their country. So, very very wrong mindset.

I know of no authoritarian government that hasn't resorted to that practice, the aligning of its citizen's beliefs, speech and thought, with the official "party line."

The funny thing is that the "party line" problem is very acute in USA. In (continental) Europe, there are always at least two parties who form the cabinet and at least five parties that sit in the parliament, usually more. Whereas in USA you have two indistinguishable parties, yet in rhetoric, against all rhyme, reason, and facts, the Repubs believe that the Dems are authoritarians about to overturn the constitution and whatever (and this "party line" has become mainstream since Tea Party and Trump), at the same time as the Repubs themselves have undertaken actual real-life coups, such as this year Jan 6th^[1] and thereafter blocking impeachment of the treasonous president. Looks like impeachment of the president is the weakest point of your constitution: never once has it been successful, meaning that the president is absolutely unaccountable, if he happens to be unscrupulous. Nixon at least had a conscience...

The funniest aspect here is that the policies and platforms of the parties (actual, nevermind mere rhetoric) are indistinguishable from each other. You are the one clearly toeing the party line and dreaming of one-party rule.

Why on earth should I allow politicians -at any level- to presume they (...or any gaggle of their experts...) know better, how I should live my life?

Conversely, why should any politician allow you to have any input on how the country or the city should be run? Politicians welcome politely reasoned input, not silly rhetoric about Commies taking over or stupid extrapolations from first or second or fifth amendment. And they often actually act on input that comes along with some personal benefits. This is how politics works regardless of party.

Furthermore, there are ways to influence politicians without bribing them when there are signs that there is a broader popular cause at issue, but this requires you to recognise your own class and the politician's class. You keep misidentifying these, thus misidentifying what is good for you and what is practicable for the politician.

Overall, for peace of mind it is advisable to let politicians do whatever they are doing - and ignore it. Let them think they know better and that they have some influence over how we regular folks live our lives. Let them. And then occasionally show them what really is the case.

(Did you ever see the film "The Americanization of Emily"? (Paddy Chievski's script is wonderfully wry and worldly!) I highly recommend it. I suspect, ersi, the world gets you down because it hasn't lifted you up as high as you think it ought...

Whatever. Get back when you are done with the Athenian Constitution.

¹ You are conspicuously avoiding any comment on the events of Jan 6th. Is it too recent and still requires some digestion? ↵

Whatever. Get back when you are done with the Athenian Constitution.

Have you finished C. Northcote Parkinson's "Evolution of Political Thought"...? (Or have you resigned yourself to a niggardly existence...:) I'll forgive your churlish presumption that you're my "instructor" and continue to cast my pearls before your swinish rooting inattention.
You've prompted me to loose upon the (wee though it be) world a little poem I wrote yesterday:

The serendipitous coincidence
 never fazes me; I take it in stride,
 as they say. (Knowing where you're going, lied
the sage, won't make your step quicker...) But sense

says Yes, it will; and longer too! You can
 stop and smell more roses if your pace is
 brisk; enjoy the scenery, the faces;
your own thoughts! Since you've known since it began

your journey's end, not interruption nor
detour matters much: You'll get where -soon or

late- you're going.
Not to hie when life is
 short is folly. But not to take pleasure
 'long the way is waste! Trinkets and treasure
abound, despite how oft' this world is strife...

        (dej ღ - © 2021)
Your footnote is intriguing evidence of you superficiality and penchant for "motivated" reasoning... So: "Luc-y! Let me 'splain you something..."

While I understand that most people can't not look at a car wreck, I'm not one of them! I've watched a lot of the footage from that day; read many accounts, and various screeds, purporting to place blame and 'scribe consequence. I've no interest in joining the consistory...:) Suffice to say: 'Tweren't no insurrection! (It was -compared to the summer's BLM and antifa-inspired mayhem hardly a kerfuffle!) Were it not for the preening self-important at the periphery of the events, you nor I wouldn't have heard about it.
When someone from the commentariat gets their panties in a twist, I simply smile my seeming commiseration; thinking: "Fools rush in...".
Do you need more? Or are you incapable of understanding my plain English? :)

Do you need more? Or are you incapable of understanding my plain English?

As I suspected: Plain. Factless. And wrong.

Or can you justify your opinion from something that should matter to you, such as the constitution? Well, didn't think so. So, totally worthless opinion.

At a loss for words, I see...: ) have you got a textbook that shews^[1] how to dismiss with juvenile derision all that you don't understand? (: Your "sources" of course is your mantra: As if complaining "But look who and how many agree with me!?" brooks all argument. You've not even read enough Aristotle to appreciate fallacies in the wild; text-book example and Mrs Malaprop's unwitting seems all you need to feel smug: A bug in a rug!

¹ It would profit you to read any of B>B> Shaw's introductions to any of his plays...↵

At a loss for words, I see...: )

When words are cheap, better not even try.

Have you finished C. Northcote Parkinson's "Evolution of Political Thought"...?

I likely never will. The guy is dubious in his preface,

The reader is left with fallacies as well as facts. These fallacies are neither stated nor upheld nor even perhaps deliberately implied. They arise indeed less from the study of any given work than, as a general impression, from all. They are none the less fallacious for that and their refutation is more than overdue.

First of these implicit fallacies is the idea that political thought is confined to authors and denied to everyone else. By this reasoning we must learn the ideas of Plato and Laski and can safely ignore those of Pericles and Churchill. This is surely to give an absurd weight to the accident of authorship.

Who is he calling fallacious here? I assume he is faulting his own professors here. This was not the fault of my own education. I have read Churchill, von Clausewitz, Napoleon, Bismarck, Kissinger, etc.

Moreover, Plato was not a mere thinker, but also a political practitioner - or experimenter rather. He learned first hand that his Republic was impracticable in real life. And Aristotle was the tutor of Alexander the Great. Not something to be ignored.

So there. You have inherited Parkinson's main fallacy: Calling out fallacy too soon when it is not even there.

Over years I tried to live on hope that Americans would get a definitive President who would stop trying to run the dashed world to be run by the monied minds whilst millions of ex-colonists are brained into world dominance whilst being hypocritical about poverty and failings elsewhere in the world INCLUDING in the US. Massive monetary and the massive cost ridicule outer countries whist being champion political controllers. A whole series of security organisations and a military number costing a fortune and no help to the massive numbers suffering. Used to think that Goebbels had a clever way of fooling people but he has been overtaken across the pond. Does not matter a sod whether a Republican or Democrat President the defaults and lacking in America is going to continue. If Dr Goebbels was alive today he would be smiling and clapping hands! 

I know, RJ: It's like trying to teach a certain Glass-house-ian to craft a simple declarative sentence...:) Trying to say (or answer...) everything at once is too demanding a task for the likes of me?!

Over years I tried to live on hope that Americans would get a definitive President who would stop trying to run the dashed world to be run by the monied minds whilst millions of ex-colonists are brained into world dominance whilst being hypocritical about poverty and failings elsewhere in the world INCLUDING in the US. Massive monetary and the massive cost ridicule outer countries whist being champion political controllers. A whole series of security organisations and a military number costing a fortune and no help to the massive numbers suffering. Used to think that Goebbels had a clever way of fooling people but he has been overtaken across the pond. Does not matter a sod whether a Republican or Democrat President the defaults and lacking in America is going to continue. If Dr Goebbels was alive today he would be smiling and clapping hands! 

@OakdaleFTL
The irony in this gibberish is we do what the original mother country did from 1700-1944. Terms such as "Bretton-Woods" and "hope to keep some degree of soft power through the US" are completely lost on him.

I blame Irn Bru and his hatred of Red Socks all these years.

A likely irony (my own father actually hated the RC Church, for the silliest of reasons... that will likewise be lost on the Howling Howie: His litany of lapses and lamentable shortcomings and policy failures applies equally well to his beloved Union!

The unfortunate thing is Colonel that you for all your intelligence you practice the gibberish you leave with me. What you do is ignore the hard fact that it does not matter a damn which of the two control freak parties run the US my statement on the crime side with jailed numbers, poverty, gunnings, duff policing etc at the levels they are and massive world interference are unfortunately factual.  That yanks so easily brained is unfortunate because the place does not change from the massive negatives I refer to. I stand by the fact you ex-colonists ignore the hard truths and a waved flag keeps you controlled. The failings widely do come from the two parties time after time and sadly there is for too many over there an ease of mind control and the failings in suffering by tens of millions mean sod all. Even for a basic thing the failings continue with the two parties Americans are controlled into. Heavens even middle class people can be strained.

The unfortunate thing is Colonel that you for all your intelligence you practice the gibberish you leave with me. What you do is ignore the hard fact that it does not matter a damn which of the two control freak parties run the US my statement on the crime side with jailed numbers, poverty, gunnings, duff policing etc at the levels they are and massive world interference are unfortunately factual.  That yanks so easily brained is unfortunate because the place does not change from the massive negatives I refer to. I stand by the fact you ex-colonists ignore the hard truths and a waved flag keeps you controlled. The failings widely do come from the two parties time after time and sadly there is for too many over there an ease of mind control and the failings in suffering by tens of millions mean sod all. Even for a basic thing the failings continue with the two parties Americans are controlled into. Heavens even middle class people can be strained.

Couple of questions for you:
1. When Northern Ireland leaves the UK, how are you going to feel about that?

2. When Scotland leaves what will soon be known as "rump UK, 'rUK' for short) lawfully or you lot get a Catalonia-type situation, how are you going to react and feel about that?

3. Do you actually support Little Englander, Boris Johnson?

4. If so, are you acutely aware that his accomplishments will be the prior questions?

For all of that "brained" commentary you offered, I cannot see how a man of such age who has likely seen much (The fall of the British empire, notably) could support that nitwit.

I'm reminded of that poem Churchill liked to quote, when I'm watching the BBC World News every morning and seeing another moronic decision Blundering Boris has made: " Who is in charge of the clattering train?
The axles creak,and the couplings strain.
For the pace is hot and the points are near,
And Sleep hath deadened the Drivers ear;
And signals flash through the night in vain
WHO IS IN CHARGE OF THE CLATTERING TRAIN?"

Did passingly muse that you may be a well educated ex-colonist but i ponder on that. Ulster is not going anywhere and i would also inform you that a number of years ago the Irish republic withdrew from it's constitution any claim on the "5 Counties." You could also have come out with that stuff of Scotland leaving the UK at the last vote on it and even with all the guff did not happen. Scotland not in Gt Britain would be a catastrophe as it would lose the annual subsidy via the Barnett Formula and indeed this year an extra sum passed up to Scotland. Nationalists messed up the police by merging all into one force and created a massive debt. The National Health suffered under them as did education. Regarding Boris Johnston he has an eccentric side but I would remind you that he stormed into office and the Labour Party got it's worst result since before the 2nd World War. That included scrubbing Labour's working class position in North England. Passingly amusing a Yank yakking on here when you consider your country's failing internally as well as internationally. You can waffle nonsensical stances but it shows you ignore America's internal history as well as wanting to fight wars all the time. You might have been well educated but  vague of using the grey cells properly!